Ron Fouchier and the end of the world.

Will Ron Fouchier’s curiosity and, it seems ego, end the modern era? Dr. Ron Fouchier is a virologist at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam. He is also the creator of, most probably, the most deadly virus ever seen on Earth.

Ron Fouchier has mutated the bird flu, H5N1, into an airborne form, that transmits easily from host to host – and would do so, too, in humans. If his virus were ever to be released into the world, it would kill 50 to 60% of all who caught it: billions of people would die. Civilization itself might fall, in the chaos and terror of such a pandemic, in which simply breathing the air, breathed out by another, some distance away, would be enough to kill.

Apparently, it took, we are told, just five mutations, to change ordinary bird flu – which kills over 50% of those infected, but rarely transmits between people – into an easily transmissible airborne version, that spreads as easily as any other flu – but which is up to 30 times as deadly as the Spanish flu of 1918, which only killed 2% of those it infected.

Truly, this virus is a potential doomsday weapon. Yet, it is held in a special room at the Erasmus Medical Center, in Rotterdam. Should it ever be leaked, billions could die as a result. Richard H. Ebright, a bioweapons expert at Rutgers University commented that there had been hundreds of unintentional leaks of potential bioweapons from US labs – and regarding airborne H5N1 he opined: “It will inevitably escape and within a decade”. Should it ever do so, Ron Fouchier would become the most destructive person in human history. His work would have killed billions of people.

There is only one justification for the kind of work Ron Fouchier has done. That is if this work leads to a means to defeat this illness and prevent it ever becoming a pandemic. However, now that he has created it and spoken of its details at public meetings, it is likely that others will recreate the work. As similar viruses are created elsewhere, the chances of an accidental or deliberate leak escalate. The race, therefore, is now on, between those who would defeat this potential pandemic, and those who would unleash it, accidentally or deliberately.

Oftentimes, it seems that modern man does not have long in this world. We have the intelligence to create powerful technologies, but not the wisdom, as a race, to use them wisely. Ron Fouchier’s work could lead directly to the downfall of modern civilization. Were 60% of people to die, days after being exposed to no more than a sneeze, I very much doubt whether the fabric of civilization would hold – it would rupture into utter terrified chaos.

The real danger of Ron Fouchier’s H5N1 work is that now all the world’s terrorists and unhinged haters of humanity, will know that it is possible to create an airborne H5N1 – by simply announcing that, he has ensured that many others, around the world, will try to do so. Even if these groups don’t deliberately release it, simply by working on it, they greatly increase the chances that it will be released accidentally. Then again, there are foreign powers who might consider releasing such a virological agent. What might North Korea, for instance, do with such a virus? Would they consider it reasonable to lose 60% of their own population (which they don’t seem to have much love for), so as to kill 60% of the rest of the world? Some unstable nation, somewhere, might make that calculation and make a fateful decision.

The onus is now on Ron Fouchier and all the virologists familiar with his work, to create a vaccine against H5N1, or to derive some other means of defeating it. If this is not done, the time might come, after the modern era, when the name Ron Fouchier is remembered for all the wrong reasons.

I am struck by the hint of a self-satisfied smile that seems to adorn all photos of Ron Fouchier that I have seen. I am not sure whether I am reading him wrongly or not – but he does seem to be rather impressed with himself. Personally, I wouldn’t want to be potentially responsible for the death of 60% of humanity and the fall of the modern era – yet that is precisely the potential of the work he seems so smug about.

Now, that you have made the virus Ron, you have a responsibility to learn how to defeat it. Only then would you truly deserve a self-satisfied smile. Only then, will humanity be able to relax, before its impending fate.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

On the dumbness of "intelligence".

CIA stands for the Central Intelligence Agency. I understand that, by “intelligence” they are referring to information, rather than skill in its use – but, nevertheless, one does expect intelligent behaviour from an agency bearing that name and having that role. Recent events, however, suggest that, perhaps, the CIA should look at the quality of either its intake or its training.

Hezbollah has discovered more than a dozen CIA spies in Lebanon. It is feared that they are likely to be executed, if they have not already been. So, too, CIA spies in Iran have been uncovered and apprehended, in a double blow for the iconic agency.

I was struck by reports that the CIA spies in Lebanon were meeting, in a large group, at a Pizza hut. Apparently, the code word for the venue, in their “secret” conversations, was “pizza”. Hmm. I wonder if anyone could guess what that meant? Former officials were the source of the code word. Present officials deny the code word “pizza” was used. My take on that is to ask: who has “face” to lose? Those who no longer work in the US government – or those who do?

Regardless of whether or not that particular code word was used or not – which, if it was, is a spectacular instance of catastrophic dumbness – the other aspect of the situation is equally troubling. Is it not conspicuous for a large number of agents and their contacts to be meeting in a public restaurant all at the same time? Is this not likely to attract attention? Indeed, it did...with the result that the spy network was apprehended and rolled up.

If these reports are true – of a ludicrous code word and attention grabbing meetings – then I have to wonder at how such things can be. It would seem that the CIA’s agents in the Middle East, have been living life without a full appreciation of the risks of their role. They have lived as if in a TV show – where the good guys are never caught and nothing ill ever happens to them. No-one who truly understood, deep down, the risks of the job, would choose to meet, in a large group, in a public place...it is just too likely to be noticed. A little thought, without any special training at all, would suggest many different ways to organize meetings, that are much safer, and less likely to be noticed. However, this was not done, it seems: foolish risks were taken, instead, as if, in fact, there were no risks at all.

I am left to wonder at the age of the agents in question. Were they young and inexperienced...and, perhaps, a little unprepared for their roles? Did they see it as a game, and not as a very perilous life, indeed? No-one of any maturity, with any perspective on the consequences of being revealed, in such a role, could have behaved, as these “spies” are said to have done.

If it transpires that these operatives were, in fact, very young, it would be wiser, in future, to use older, more experienced field operatives, with a better appreciation of the fragility of life, and the precariousness of their position, as foreign agents, in the midst of hostile territory.

That being said, I hope the operatives, young or not, return home safely to their families, intact and untortured – though I rather feel that is as much a vain hope, as their actions were foolish, in meeting in Pizza Hut, in the first place.

That pizza better have been worth it.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

The hidden cost of the Iraq War.

Everyone knows that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have proven costly. Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize Winner, puts that cost at over 3 trillion dollars, in a Washington Post article, The true cost of the Iraq War, here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/03/AR2010090302200.html

What people don’t know – including Joseph Stiglitz – is that the true cost is the opportunity cost of what might have been done with that 3 trillion dollars, instead. I would like you to consider an undeniable fact and an uncomfortable one: it is undeniable, that the Iraq War, was largely over the control of oil. Had Iraq no oil, it would also have had no war. It is uncomfortable, for many of us, to also note that the world’s oil is running out. There are arguments over how long the oil will last – but it cannot be denied, except by the insane, or oil company propagandists (the same thing), that oil is finite and running out fast. Typical estimates are that we have no more than 40 years left at present rates of consumption before the end of oil. Without replacement energy sources, advanced human civilization will, thereafter, be impossible. Sadly, not enough is being done to prepare for this eventuality. The world’s politicians, as usual, lack foresight – or perhaps just don’t care about such seemingly distant events.

Now, at present, the world consumes about one cubic mile of oil per year, and another two cubic miles of oil energy equivalent, per year, for a grand total of three cubic miles of oil per year. See this Wikipedia article for these facts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil

Thus, one third of the world’s total energy comes from oil. Without it, modern civilization would look a lot like the 18^th century or so – with no energy for the machines of the Industrial Revolution and beyond. One would have thought that this future inevitability (if nothing is done about it) would occupy the minds of our leaders. Unfortunately, that assumes that our leaders have functioning minds – but close observation puts this in question.

I was struck, on reading the Wikipedia article, by an interesting coincidence. The estimated cost of creating a cubic mile of oil energy equivalence, from wind power, is 3.3 trillion dollars. That is about the money spent on the Iraq War. Now, the Iraq War was about securing energy, as oil, for the USA (whatever else they might say it was about, that was, of course, the true motivation). The USA was so concerned about its energy future, that it decided to kill hundreds of thousands of Iraqis to secure more oil supplies. It also thought it worth spending 3 trillion dollars to do so. Curiously, that 3 trillion dollars was about the cost of one cubic mile of oil, at 2008 prices (120 dollars per barrel). So, the Iraq war has cost, so far, enough to buy the world’s entire annual oil production for one year. It has also cost enough to create an independent alternative energy source, from wind, equal to one cubic mile of oil per year, for the lifetime of the turbines (20 to 30 years).

Thus, it can be seen that, had the American leadership been intelligent and wise, they could have foregone the Iraq war and spent the funds they would have spent on it – 3 trillion dollars – on creating energy independence for the United States, such that the United States would have no need for an external energy source, ever again.

The decision to go to war in Iraq was not a rational one. It was one derived from very narrow thinking, that did not see the broad context in which the decision was embedded. Nor did it see the alternative means of achieving the ultimate goal – energy security – that existed. It is clear that little intelligence was applied to the decision – no-one paused to reflect on whether there was an alternative way to achieve the unstated goal: energy supply for the USA.

I wish to propose a general principle: The principle of irrational resource wars:

Wars over oil or any other energy source are irrational, since the cost of the war, is always going to be greater than the cost of creating an alternative energy source by investing some of the funds that would have been spent on the war.

America could have secured the energy equivalence of 20 to 30 cubic miles of oil (the lifespan productive capacity of the wind turbines they could have built), for the cost of the Iraq war. I do not think that Iraq’s total oil reserves are likely to amount to as much as this, since the total world reserves are not going to be much greater than that. (Proven oil reserves are at 43 cubic miles of oil…after that runs out, we are in a post-oil world). Indeed, this article in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves suggests that Iraq has just 8.26% of the world’s oil reserves. That would be equivalent to just 3.55 cubic miles of oil. America could have secured 8 and a half times as much energy, for the same investment, as it did in Iraq – and at the cost of no human lives at all.

From this analysis, it can be seen that the Iraq war was irrational – it had great cost in financial and human life terms – yet, there existed an alternative that would have secured permanent energy independence for the United States, had it been implemented.

Never forget this: War is dumb. There are always more intelligent alternatives, to achieve the same ends – unless the end is death itself.

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.htmland here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Underestimating nature: Japanese hubris.

Nature should never be underestimated, nor human prowess overestimated. The Japanese are guilty of both. Indeed, their hubris may yet lead to a kind of disaster and human tragedy that has not befallen a developed nation in modern memory.

The Japanese mistake comes, in a very deep way, from their national personality. Their own mythology and culture, so evident in their manga comics, is that technology can triumph over all. They seem to believe that not only is there a technological solution for all problems, but that the Japanese are themselves equipped to deliver it. This attitude has led to some successes in certain fields of engineering and electronics, but it has also led to foolish decisions on a national level. One of those is the placement of 55 nuclear reactors, in Japan, within the influence of the “Ring of Fire”, seismically active zone.

Japanese decision makers, rather puzzlingly, from an objective point of view, ignored the fact that Japan is one of the most seismically active places on Earth, and ordered a dense network of nuclear reactors to be built. They believed that their engineers could make their reactors entirely earthquake proof, eliminating the dangers of having fission reactors in a seismic zone. Indeed, they planned for earthquakes of a particular seriousness – but this particular quake seriously surpasses their design limits. In short, the Japanese underestimated nature.

There is a lesson for all nations here and all politicians. The Earth is entering a time of ever greater extremes in natural phenomena, such as weather. This means that events once thought rare, will become increasingly common and, unfortunately for us (and the world’s insurers) ever more savage. Those planning against such eventualities, should try their best to OVER-estimate the seriousness of events. They should plan for the worst possible imaginable circumstances – and then some. The only safety, in the face of the “natural” disasters to come, will be in what may seem like excessively cautious preparation. However, when the time comes, it will not seem excessive at all. It will seem like the wisdom it is.

So, let not the world make the Japanese mistake. Plan ahead for the worst of all possible scenarios, in all areas of natural disaster. Overengineer everything that needs to be protected. Such preparations are the only measures that can reduce the impact of the many disasters to come, which we shall all see in our lifetimes.

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page. To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html
and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 4, this month, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here: http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at: http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is at http://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

The wisdom and folly of Great Britain.

Great Britain is showing both wisdom and folly in recent times. It is curious to observe these two characteristics at work, simultaneously, in one of the world's great, but formerly greater nations.

I admire the preparedness that Great Britain is showing against the flu pandemic - this one, and all others, that might or might not come. Great Britain has the highest proportion of Tamiflu/Relenza antiviral treatments that I have seen in any nation - enough for 55% of the population. They are also seeking to buy 32 million masks, on the international market (enough for each of those receiving treatment, basically). Now, I look at those numbers and I see a great willingness to do what is necessary to mitigate this coming pandemic. There is wisdom in their actions, in this case. It should also be noted that these medications and masks would, I have no doubt, be issued FREE to everyone, under the National Health Service - it would not be a case of the poor must go without (as it would in certain Asian countries I could mention). There is a wisdom in that, too, since disease spreads between people of all degrees of wealth and treating people for free, ensures that the poorer members of society do not pass illness to the richer members. So, not only is it humane, but it is good public health policy, too.

Yet, there is another decision that the UK has made which does not seem so wise. The government is raising the top rate of tax to 50% from next April. Last year they raised it from 40% to 45%. This will apply to all people earning more than 150,000 pounds. They are also removing all tax allowances from people earning more than 100,000 pounds a year. Apparently, these changes will affect the top 600,000 earners, in the UK. This strikes me as particularly foolish - for it is a competitive world and one thing all nations are competing for is talent. If Britain takes too much of the earnings of its most talented people off them, they will just up and leave. Great Britain will not stay "great" for too long, if it is scaring accomplished people away.

There is, perhaps, a philosophical connection between the first examples of wisdom and the example of folly. It is clear that the public health preparedness costs money and that this money is raised in taxes. So, the attitude that leads to great preparedness also leads to greater spending. Yet, in this particular case, the connection is weak. It does not cost much that much to be prepared for a flu pandemic. However, it is true that if there is a general tendency to spend, there will be an increased tendency to tax.

The way things are going, Great Britain looks set to be a healthy nation, with a great shortage of skilled people. It could be said that the new tax policy could cost Britain more in lost economic health - as good people leave - than the public health policy will save them.

It is strange to see such long-sightedness on public health present in the same country where such short-sightedness is present with regards to taxation and talent retention. It is my view that Britain will learn an interesting lesson over the next few years: that taxation is limited not by legislation, but by competition with other nations, for talent retention. Great Britain is just about to lose a lot of its talent, to the rest of the lower taxed world. I hope Britain wakes up to the situation before the damage is too great.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

"Swine Flu" madness.

There is a new madness sweeping the world, "swine flu" madness, or H1N1 lunacy. Its symptoms are clear and focus around strange fears of infection. I shall explain.

Iraqi officials at Baghdad zoo have just killed three wild boars, in the strange belief that these boars, through being "swine" could somehow endanger people. So, too, and rather more drastically, Egypt has indicated that it intends to slaughter all 300,000 pigs in the nation, for fear of them harbouring swine flu. I wonder, at times, on hearing such news, whether I have suddenly slipped back to a pre-scientific middle ages and find myself surrounded by a superstitious world.

Let us get some things right: if an animal does not have a disease, it cannot give it to you. A virus does not magically appear out of nowhere - they don't spontaneously generate themselves inside a pig, simply because the virus was formerly called "swine" flu. The wild boars at Baghdad Zoo lived isolated lives with very little opportunity to pick up an infection. Only if one of their handlers became sick with the swine flu could they ever have caught it - yet they have been killed, simply for being "swine". The same goes for the Egyptian pigs. There hasn't been a hint of the new flu in any Egyptian pig - only if a human handler passed it to a pig, could one ever become infected (or an infected pig from outside Egypt was brought in). There is also no evidence, at all, of pigs transmitting this disease to humans, at this time. It is in fact not just a swine flu - but one that mixes swine, avian and human versions of influenza. The logic of the slaughterers seems to be based on the belief that the pigs harbour the virus, (when they don't)and so should be slaughtered to prevent them passing it on, yet, in fact, it is HUMANS who are harbouring the virus. So, applying this same logic to the true situation, would lead to the slaughter of all Egyptian people as a means to ensure that no Egyptian person succumbed to the disease. It is the logic of lunacy.

For me, one of the bigger surprises of this health crisis, is the way that modern countries appear to be acting irrationally. Slaughtering innocent, harmless animals is not the only lunacy. China and Russia, among other countries, have banned the import of pork. Yet, as I have noted, there is no evidence firstly that pigs are harbouring the disease, nor that they are transmitting it to humans. Anyway, humans don't eat raw pork - and if it is cooked, as it always would be, even if infected with scores of pathogens, it should be safe to eat.

It is customarily believed that Homo Sapiens is sapient, yet, at times like this, I seriously doubt it. Sapience, if a property of Mankind, is only a property of a minority of the species. The vast majority are, as nations all over the world are demonstrating, still quite capable of acting on irrational thought, even at the highest governmental level. Perhaps a greater threat to Mankind than pandemic flu, is the limited rationality possessed by so many of its leaders. It is their foolishness that should concern us, more than the H1N1 influenza A virus - for the virus will pass, but their foolishness will remain, at the helm of their nations. Now, that really is something to be scared of.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)