Google
 
Web www.scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com

The boy who knew too much: a child prodigy

This is the true story of scientific child prodigy, and former baby genius, Ainan Celeste Cawley, written by his father. It is the true story, too, of his gifted brothers and of all the Cawley family. I write also of child prodigy and genius in general: what it is, and how it is so often neglected in the modern world. As a society, we so often fail those we should most hope to see succeed: our gifted children and the gifted adults they become. Site Copyright: Valentine Cawley, 2006 +

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Homeschooling rights in Malaysia.

In Malaysia, homeschooling is, essentially, illegal for Malaysians, unless the child has special needs. By this, they generally mean, impaired in some way. Though, of course, one could try to interpret giftedness as a special need...(though I don't know if they would allow that).

Anyway, recently there has been some articles in the Malaysian newspapers regarding homeschooling, in Malaysia. These articles mentioned the fact that it was illegal and did not, in my opinion, give full consideration to the impact of homeschooling regulation on the life choices of Malaysian citizens. So, I wrote a letter to the New Straits Times to point out an effect of banning homeschooling on emigration patterns. I waited and waited and waited...but they didn't publish it.

Today, however, the New Straits Times has published another letter, on homeschooling, which explicitly calls for greater regulation and control of homeschooling. So, what do we have here: my letter which calls for the legalization of homeschooling and the right of all to be homeschooled, is NOT published, but a letter which emphasises the burden of homeschooling and urges further controls IS published. Here we have a clear case of only publishing views in agreement with, perhaps, the outlook of the paper itself or the government of Malaysia, as it presently is. There is not the entertainment of a plurality of viewpoints - which is most healthy, whenever important decisions concerning the fate of a nation are to be made. Failure to look widely, at the fullest range of options, is often reason for failure of the endeavour itself. I believe that Malaysia is making just that kind of mistake, in its approach to considering the homeschooling issue.

After the New Straits Times declined to publish my letter, I sent it to the Star. They, too, have not published it. I find this interesting, since the Star have published two of my previous letters. Thus, it is appears, in this instance, that it is the VIEWS I express that are not considered desirable, thus, must be muffled.

Malaysia's newspapers may not wish to publish my letter...but the wonderful world of blogs and search engines, allows me to do so myself. Thus, I have pasted the letter below, so that, at least, some people in Malaysia, might have the chance to read it, and consider its viewpoint.

Thank you for reading.

Don’t lose Malaysia’s gifted: legalize homeschooling.

Some of your readers may have heard of my son, Ainan Celeste Cawley, the scientific child prodigy, aged 10, studying at HELP University College. What they may not have heard, however, is why we left Singapore, where he was born, to come to Malaysia. In a word it largely came down to homeschooling. Quite simply, Singapore wouldn’t allow us to homeschool him, so we left.

We strove for three years, to get suitable educational provision for Ainan once he revealed a precocious talent for and interest in science, in particular Chemistry. It was very hard to get the educational system to respond adequately in Singapore. It took us, for instance, almost two years to secure regular laboratory classes for him, in Chemistry, at a Polytechnic. It should not have taken more than two weeks, in a responsive educational environment. In other respects, the school system was not meeting his needs – they were teaching way below where he was in the sciences and could be in the other subjects, given the opportunity. So, we asked to be allowed to homeschool him. The only reply we ever received from the tellingly named “Compulsory Education Unit” was a note saying: “We will revert to you shortly”. They never did. It was the only kind of letter they ever responded with, despite repeated attempts to secure a decision. Finally, I spoke to the woman in charge and she would only say: “I cannot give you an answer”.

Once Ainan’s laboratory classes came to an end, there was no further educational provision for him, in Sinagpore – and the system had refused to allow him to be homeschooled, so we were not allowed to provide for him, ourselves. Given the dead end we faced, in Singapore, we looked overseas and found what he needed in Malaysia, very quickly. So we emigrated.

Now the lesson here, for Malaysia, is clear. If Malaysia does NOT allow homeschooling, it will lose its most gifted students, if they cannot find what they need here and are not allowed to be provided for at home. They will go overseas. Ironically, as foreigners, they would be allowed to be homeschooled in Singapore. Thus, Malaysia, may lose its gifted students to Singapore, if it doesn’t allow them to be homeschooled here.

The answer is obvious: every parent should have the right to homeschool their child, if they feel the child’s needs cannot be met in a standardized schooling situation. The educational system should also help in whatever way it can, by, for instance, allowing homeschooled children to join in with extra-curricular activities at a school. If Malaysia does this, it will ensure that its brightest children do not have to leave for more flexible shores, to secure an education. Surely that is in the best interests of Malaysia as a nation?

__________________________________________________________________________________________
I do not know why Malaysia's newspapers wouldn't publish my letter - or at least the main ones which I tried (perhaps I should try others?) However, I know this: I do hope that some, at least, of my future letters are published, since the last three attempts have not met with any success. As an outside observer, I am equipped to see things which may not be clear to locals, who have no comparisons to make. Thus, I have insights to contribute, which could help Malaysia, in its continued development. I only hope to be allowed to share those insights and not have them silenced, relatively speaking, by being restricted to a blog that most people will never know about.

Of course, if all my future letters are declined, the day will come when I stop writing them, to the local media. Then, of course, they will have lost a voice...and where is the gain in that? Every different perspective is valuable, if an intellectually rich society is desired. Of course, if sterile conformity is the goal, then I understand why such views might be rejected. I would urge Malaysia, however, to move towards accepting a plurality of views...and not learn from its southern neighbour's efforcement of but one way to think about the world.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 6 and Tiarnan, 4, this month, please go to:
http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at: http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/
Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/
Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is at http://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Valentine Cawley @ 12:41 PM  8 comments

Monday, November 02, 2009

The flight of the Malays.

Malays are leaving Singapore. Now, this is no news, but what may be news, is their relative abundance in those who emigrate.

A few days ago, I posted on the remarkable inflow of Chinese PRCs into Singapore. I wondered, in that post, "The secret Singaporean Teleportation Device", whether this deepening of the Chinese nature of Singapore, was prompting more Malays to leave, as they found themselves further marginalized. I had no figures to back up my intuition - well, now, I have.

Today, on reading the New Paper, I came across a little snippet of information in an article on Malay emigration to Australia. There was a quote from a Singaporean Chinese "immigration consultant"...or should it be "emigration consultant? This Mr. Sim remarked that fully 30 % of his clients were Singaporean Malays. That is a surprisingly high number for two reasons. Firstly, the proportion of Malays in Singapore is only 13.6%, so this abundance in his clientele was 2.2 times greater than expected by chance. Secondly he is a CHINESE consultant, and therefore presumably less well-connected to the Malay community than a Malay agent would be. Thus, his clientele may UNDERESTIMATE the proportion of Malays who are leaving Singapore, for other countries.

Recently the Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, spoke of the "privileged position" of the Malays in Singapore and of the importance of maintaining that privilege. I thought this an eminently funny speech, because anyone who knows anything of the real situation, in Singapore, for Malays, knows that they are not privileged, in any real sense - they are, in fact, disadvantaged and discriminated against. So many jobs, for instance, in Singapore require that the applicant be of Chinese race. They call it "Chinese speaking"...but if a Malay fluent in Mandarin applies for the job (or an Indian for that matter), I have heard that they get turned down. I have even heard of minorities fluent in Chinese being told that they are not being hired because a Chinese person is wanted - despite their Mandarin fluency.

The real test, of course, as to whether a minority feels at home, in their nation, is whether or not they leave and the relative proportion of those who depart, who are from the minority in question. By this measure, and by the evidence of Mr. Sim's clientele (which we have no reason to believe is unusual or atypical of other agents' clientele in any way), the Malays certainly don't feel privileged. They clearly feel that they will have a better life elsewhere - which is why so many of them are leaving.

What do they find overseas? Well, one thing which is refreshing, for many Malays, is that they don't experience the active discrimination in the workplace that is present in Singapore. They don't see job adverts for "Must speak Mandarin"...they are only required to speak English (in the places they tend to go to, like Australia), which, of course, they do. I have heard, on the grapevine, many success stories of Malays who couldn't really "make it" in Singapore, who found it very much easier to do so, in other countries. Tellingly, the person, in question, is no different and no more able - all that has changed is the environment and the set of social forces they are up against.

Of course, Singapore won't be bothered about this loss of Malays. They will just be replaced by PRCs from China. However, we should be concerned, because one day, there may not be any Malays left in Singapore. That will be a loss of diversity and plurality that will change the character of Singapore - and not for the better. In no way, in my view, is uniformity (which shall prevail) superior to diversity. Yet, the future of Singapore shall be rather more uniform than it is today. We can see it with our own eyes, on a daily basis, on the streets of Singapore. The national demographic statistics, too, show a steady reduction in the proportion of Malays, every decade, since the foundation of Singapore. Now, this is strange, since Malays, as it is well known, like to have children rather more than Chinese Singaporeans do. That they have more children and yet there are fewer of them, relatively, owes itself to two forces: higher relative emigration of Malays, and higher relative immigration of Chinese PRCs (plus Chinese from Malaysia, Indonesia and anywhere else they can be found).

What I find curious is that Singaporean politicians mumble about the need to maintain the Chinese population (MM Lee himself, is famous for this view). Yet, one doesn't hear any of them drawing attention to the decline of the Malays. I suppose it is, actually, one and the same thing. The decline of the Malays, implies a relative increase in the Chinese - which is what is quite clearly sought, anyway.

Were a future Singapore to lack Malays entirely, I think the Government, here, might suddenly realize their value. You see, the Singaporean Malays allow better integration of Singapore into the rest of South-East Asia. After all, Singapore's Malays speak the language of Malaysia and Indonesia. They also share cultural, religious and ideological understandings. It is one of Singapore's strengths that some of its people share the language and culture of its nearest neighbours. This helps Singapore with trade and survival, both. Were Singapore to become a solely Chinese state, two things would happen: firstly, its ability to communicate with and integrate, effectively, with its neighbouring states would be impaired. Secondly, there would be much greater likelihood of conflict with those very same neighbouring states. Whilst Singapore remains a partially Malay nation, its Malay neighbours will continue to feel they have something in common with it. Once, however, it becomes entirely Chinese (or almost so), the possibility of conflict and resentment will be much heightened. A Singapore without a Malay minority, is a Singapore that invites its own extinction. There will, of course, be a certain irony in that. A state which makes the Malays feel so unwelcome that they decide to leave, until none remain, thereby extinguishing them, will, actually have extinguished itself.

It is best not to listen to what political figures say of a country, it is preferable to watch what the people do. It is not politicians that tell the truth, by their words, but people who tell the truth, by their actions. Singapore's leaders talk of equality for all races, yet, if Singapore's races felt truly equal in opportunity and life chances, the numbers who emigrated would be in direct proportion to their relative racial abundance in the nation. We can see from the New Paper article and Mr. Sim's experience of his clientele that this is not so. Vastly more Malays than expected, are emigrating. This can only be because Malays feel that their lives would be better elsewhere. If they thought that their lives, in Singapore, would be as equally good, as their fellow non-Malays, they would not emigrate in disproportionate numbers.

Countries which make minorities feel welcome are healthy countries, socially and psychologically. They also tend to be successful ones (just think of the demographics of America). Would not Singapore be better off matching the welcome of an America, than the monoculture of China or Japan?

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

IMDB is the Internet Movie Database for film and tv professionals. If you would like to look at my IMDb listing for which another fifteen credits are to be uploaded, (which will probably take several months before they are accepted) please go to: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3438598/ As I write, the listing is new and brief - however, by the time you read this it might have a dozen or a score of credits...so please do take a look. My son, Ainan Celeste Cawley, also has an IMDb listing. His is found at: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3305973/ My wife, Syahidah Osman Cawley, has a listing as well. Hers is found at: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Labels: , , , , , , , ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Valentine Cawley @ 8:18 PM  11 comments

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Differential support of the gifted.

There are, no doubt, gifted children in all nations of the world, however, are they all treated as well?

Recently, I corresponded with a Malaysian writer. She was very interested in what kind of support Ainan was receiving. Her assumption was that Ainan would be supported directly by the government, in some way - or by private sector involvement, to optimize his chances and development and remove as many barriers as possible. I had to let her down on that one. You see, Ainan is receiving no direct governmental support and no private sector assistance either. The only, though valuable, support is his attendance at Singapore Polytechnic to do Chemistry, which we arranged ourselves. That, however, was not the kind of support she was thinking of. She was thinking of the kind of assistance that allows special personalized programmes to be put in place and the funds provided for them. Yet, Ainan, despite his evident need has no such support.

Singapore has a "Gifted Branch" which, ostensibly, is supposed to support gifted children. As long term readers of this blog will know, Ainan was involved with them from the age of seven. However, we gave up on them because they were repeatedly and consistently unhelpful and obstructive. Their mantras were two fold: "There are no resources available" and "If we do it for him, they will all want it." Thus, little or nothing was done by them to support Ainan and many obvious interventions were point blank refused - for reasons similar to those above.

Singapore prides itself on being a leading nation in the South East Asian region yet, surprisingly, it is not leading in the way it supports prodigious children. The Malaysian writer assumed Ainan would be receiving special support because, in her nation, that is what happens to prodigies: they tend to get direct state support. I have heard of cases where the local government has funded the special educational needs of prodigies, in Malaysia. This, however, just does not happen in Singapore. In Singapore, the parents of prodigious children (of which there appear to be very few, since it is hard to think of any), will experience nothing but frustration at the hands of the Ministry of Education.

My question is, therefore: how is it that a developing nation, like Malaysia, has the wit to realize the importance of special support for its most unusual children...whereas a "developed" nation, like Singapore does not support them, getting hung up, instead, on the idea that no-one should receive any "special treatment".

There is, of course, a short-sightedness here on the part of Singapore, which, perhaps, explains its lack of contribution to the world's greatest thinkers. By not supporting its most able children, on an individual basis, Singapore is hampering the growth of its most promising minds. This can only lead to a stunted intellectual future for the nation. However, perhaps that is what they want: maybe they are uncomfortable that anyone should rise too far from the communal pack...standing out, here, is "just not done".

In a way, it is truly surprising that Singapore should be less able to respond to a prodigious child productively, than Malaysia. It is not what one would think. However, it does tell me something. Perhaps countries like Malaysia, while lagging in some ways, may go on to produce a sprinkling of thinkers, who bring lustre to their national name.

Will Singapore have any such shining individuals or will it just have a great big herd of conformist, rubber-stamped, cookie cutter educated people?

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

IMDB is the Internet Movie Database for film and tv professionals.If you would like to look at my IMDb listing for which another fifteen credits are to be uploaded, (which will probably take several months before they are accepted) please go to: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3438598/ As I write, the listing is new and brief - however, by the time you read this it might have a dozen or a score of credits...so please do take a look. My son, Ainan Celeste Cawley, also has an IMDb listing. His is found at: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3305973/ My wife, Syahidah Osman Cawley, has a listing as well. Hers is found at: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Labels: , , , , , , ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Valentine Cawley @ 12:54 PM  9 comments

Monday, May 04, 2009

The wisdom and folly of Great Britain.

Great Britain is showing both wisdom and folly in recent times. It is curious to observe these two characteristics at work, simultaneously, in one of the world's great, but formerly greater nations.

I admire the preparedness that Great Britain is showing against the flu pandemic - this one, and all others, that might or might not come. Great Britain has the highest proportion of Tamiflu/Relenza antiviral treatments that I have seen in any nation - enough for 55% of the population. They are also seeking to buy 32 million masks, on the international market (enough for each of those receiving treatment, basically). Now, I look at those numbers and I see a great willingness to do what is necessary to mitigate this coming pandemic. There is wisdom in their actions, in this case. It should also be noted that these medications and masks would, I have no doubt, be issued FREE to everyone, under the National Health Service - it would not be a case of the poor must go without (as it would in certain Asian countries I could mention). There is a wisdom in that, too, since disease spreads between people of all degrees of wealth and treating people for free, ensures that the poorer members of society do not pass illness to the richer members. So, not only is it humane, but it is good public health policy, too.

Yet, there is another decision that the UK has made which does not seem so wise. The government is raising the top rate of tax to 50% from next April. Last year they raised it from 40% to 45%. This will apply to all people earning more than 150,000 pounds. They are also removing all tax allowances from people earning more than 100,000 pounds a year. Apparently, these changes will affect the top 600,000 earners, in the UK. This strikes me as particularly foolish - for it is a competitive world and one thing all nations are competing for is talent. If Britain takes too much of the earnings of its most talented people off them, they will just up and leave. Great Britain will not stay "great" for too long, if it is scaring accomplished people away.

There is, perhaps, a philosophical connection between the first examples of wisdom and the example of folly. It is clear that the public health preparedness costs money and that this money is raised in taxes. So, the attitude that leads to great preparedness also leads to greater spending. Yet, in this particular case, the connection is weak. It does not cost much that much to be prepared for a flu pandemic. However, it is true that if there is a general tendency to spend, there will be an increased tendency to tax.

The way things are going, Great Britain looks set to be a healthy nation, with a great shortage of skilled people. It could be said that the new tax policy could cost Britain more in lost economic health - as good people leave - than the public health policy will save them.

It is strange to see such long-sightedness on public health present in the same country where such short-sightedness is present with regards to taxation and talent retention. It is my view that Britain will learn an interesting lesson over the next few years: that taxation is limited not by legislation, but by competition with other nations, for talent retention. Great Britain is just about to lose a lot of its talent, to the rest of the lower taxed world. I hope Britain wakes up to the situation before the damage is too great.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Labels: , , , , , ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Valentine Cawley @ 10:50 PM  4 comments

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Singapore is lagging in flu preparedness.

Singapore is lagging in flu pandemic preparedness, compared to Britain. This article here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/28/swine-flu-mexico-scotland

...shows that the UK has 33 million courses of anti-influenza medication stockpiled for a pandemic. That is enough to treat 55% of the population. As I noted, however, in my previous article, Singapore only has enough drugs to treat 10% of the population. Clearly, Singapore seems to care less for its people than the UK does, for its.

Presumably, Singapore's relative lack of drug defenses against flu are due to a cost saving mentality: they would rather not overspend on something that may never be used, is how I think, they "think". Of course, they haven't given much to thought to what would happen if they have grossly underestimated treatment needs in the event of a pandemic (which they have...since in a true pandemic, treatment would most probably be needed for greater than 10% of a population. Western Samoa, for instance, showed 90% infection, in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.)

So, Singaporeans can be happy in the knowledge that their government prefers to save money, rather than save lives. You can all rest assured that the national reserves will be there when you need them. The only problem is, since they have saved so much money on drugs never bought, you might not be there to enjoy the national reserves when the day they come to be needed.

Seriously, though, I think more forethought should be given to worst case scenarios - and less to how to cut costs and be minimalist about investing in the health of the nation. Should Singapore ever truly underestimate a pandemic, the nation might not survive in its former state. Britain has clearly thought of these worst case scenarios and has enough drugs on hand to treat over half the population. If Britain can do it, why hasn't Singapore?

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Labels: , , , , , ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Valentine Cawley @ 1:28 PM  18 comments

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Swine Flu: is Singapore ready?

Swine flu is spreading around the world. In Mexico it has already killed 152 people (a 50 % jump from the previous tally, on Monday). Cases have been noted in various parts of the world: the USA, Spain, New Zealand, South Korea and Israel. The World Health Organization have declared this a level 4 threat (out of 6 levels). This is the highest they have ever declared, since the system was put in place, five or six years ago. It looks like the world could be in for a rough time. The question is: is Singapore ready?

Singapore has already set up infra red cameras at the airports, scanning arrivals from known infected nations. This is exactly what was done in the face of SARS. Hospitals have isolation rooms available. Doctors and nurses have been trained for this occasion. But is it enough?

I ask this question for a reason, you see, I was struck by something: Singapore has a population of 4.8 million people, yet it has on hand only 500,000 courses of the antiviral, anti-influenza drug Tamiflu. (Figures are from Singapore's daily newspapers...) Thus, in the worst of all possible scenarios, with a virus that is easily transmitted between people, Singapore only has enough drugs to treat 10% of the population. Now, there is a dilemma. Who do you treat? What if those not treated die? Is this the kind of choice we want our Doctors to have to make? The choice of life or death?

It need not be this way. All the rich state of Singapore would have to do to ensure the complete NATIONAL SECURITY of its population, is to have enough Tamiflu stockpiled to treat the entire nation. Sure, it would cost ten times as much...but what is money compared to the deaths of thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people?

Let us look at the example of Mexico, the epicentre of this new disease outbreak. They have had an estimated 2,000 cases. They have also had 152 known deaths. That is a lethality rate of 7.5%. Now, that might not seem much compared to the plagues of history, but in modern times, it is a completely unacceptable, even horrifying, degree of lethality. What is worse to consider is just who is dying. The flu commonly kills the old. Now, while tragic, we all see this as less tragic than the death of the young. The elderly have lived long lives, have had the chance to express their natures, have a career, children and grandchildren and come to understand the world and their place in it. However, this is not so for the young - and the young is precisely who are being killed by the H1N1 swine flu emanating from Mexico. This particular disease loves to take away young adults in their prime, by ravaging their lungs in one last bout of pneumonia. It sounds a terrible way to die...and that way is on its way across the world, even as I write.

So far, no-one outside of Mexico has been killed by the disease. Perhaps this is due to effective treatment being ministered to the victims. However, we should not be complacent because medical infrastructure has inherent capacity limits - and a global pandemic would soon overwhelm that capacity to treat people properly. There could, in a bad scenario, be far too many cases to treat. Many would not receive adequate care...and many would die, therefore. Returning to the matter of drugs: there simply is neither the supply nor the production capacity to meet potential demand for Tamiflu, in the event of a global pandemic. The manufacturer of Tamiflu, Roche, said they could supply an additional 5 million courses to the world, if required. What is that in a world not far short of 7 billion? The stockpiles that exist around the world, of Tamiflu, are adequate for a moderate outbreak - but they cannot meet the needs of a global pandemic. Quite simply, Doctors would have to choose whom to treat, and with whom to let nature take its course: to live or to die - let the virus decide.

We are fortunate that the H1N1 swine flu (a mixture, apparently, of avian, swine and human influenza viruses) is treatable by both Tamiflu and Relenza. Tamiflu has been specifically stocked in Singapore, however, this seems inadequate to me, on two counts. Firstly, different viruses are likely to be resistant to different drugs and there are FOUR drugs available to treat influenza. These are: Symmetrel (amantadine), Flumadine (rimantadine), Relenza (zanamivir) and Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate). The H1N1 swine flu is resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to Relenza (zanamivir) and Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate). However, it could easily have been resistant, for instant, to Tamiflu, as well - and what good would Singapore's Tamiflu stocks have been then?

What is needed is for Singapore to stock ALL types of influenza drug, as a precaution against any and all influenza pandemics, which are CERTAIN to come, at some point in time. Not only that, but the stockpiles should be large enough to treat the entire population of Singapore, if need be. The only thing that is needed to ensure this is money - and money is the only thing that is risked. On the upside, Singapore's people would be made as safe as possible from flu pandemics as it is possible to be. This is, in fact, the only wise choice. It is the choice that defends against the worst possible scenario, rather than being optimistic about patient numbers. One must assume the worst in such planning - and the worst is a disease so transmissible that almost everyone gets it. Thus, there should be treatment available for everyone - and in all possible varieties, in case the disease is resistant to several drugs.

Of course, it is possible that there could be a flu pandemic resistant to all drugs...in which case, human civilization could be struck a very hard blow indeed. Let us hope, though, that our luck holds and that at least one of our drugs works, on all future pandemics. Let us hope, too, that we will have had the wisdom to stockpile it sufficiently.

This swine flu may or may not become a global pandemic. It may or may not become a wholesale killer. However, the fact remains that one day there will be a wholesale flu killer of mankind. It is the responsibility of the state - of all states, in fact - to ensure that the national defenses are as strong as possible against such an eventuality (which shall eventually come). The price that unprepared states could pay, is too high to contemplate. In the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, some states lost up to 30 % of their people (according to Wikipedia, Western Samoa, for instance lost 30 % of adult men, 22% of adult women and 10% of all children). The most recent estimates of total deaths worldwide are from 50 to 100 million people. This was in a much less populated world of only 2 billion people. Comparable figures for today would be in the region of 175 to 350 million people, were we as badly affected, today, as the world was in 1918.

I hope that the swine flu does not become a global pandemic. I hope further that all states learn this lesson: to prepare for the worst possible scenario, by having enough drugs to treat the entire population of their countries, with all possible drugs: anything less, is dangerous foolishness.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Valentine Cawley @ 9:55 PM  8 comments

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The Wisdom of the Spartans.

The Spartans are a fabled people; a people whose entire culture was built around war. So, one would think they would have known something about war, then? They did. They knew something which modern man has forgotten.

King Leonidas of Sparta led what amounted to a suicide mission to defend a pass at Thermopylae from invasion by an army of Persians, under Xerxes, so large that it was clearly incalculable. Herodotus spoke of 2.5 million Persians and as many support staff. Modern sources argue about this, with some guessing 250,000. The numbers are, however, immaterial, for King Leonidas led a force of just 300 men to defend Thermopylae, though he was accompanied by various allies gathered on the way, numbering in the hundreds, each. In all, it was a small force to meet and defend against what could have been millions and may as well have been an infinite horde so unequal were the forces, numerically. The Spartans had a secret weapon, though: they were Spartans.

King Leonidas and his minute force delayed the Persians for a full seven days including three days of battle, before the Persians, informed by a betrayer, Ephialtes, how to outflank the Spartans, killed every last Spartan and ally remaining.

King Leonidas had died, and all his men, but a legend had been born: that of a tiny force holding off a vast horde and winning a moral victory, of a kind, even if it was a terrible loss. King Leonidas' last stand gave the Greek world a chance to prepare for the invasion - a chance that allowed them to be victorious ultimately, over the Persians thus saving their entire culture from being overrun. No doubt this changed the course of the history of the Western world, which owes so much to Greek culture.

Now, what struck me about this tale of great bravery was not the bravery, itself, which would impress anyone who paused to imagine what those Spartans faced. No. What struck me was the wisdom of King Leonidas in how he chose his warriors. King Leonidas specifically ordered that NO MAN WHO DID NOT HAVE A LIVING SON COULD BE IN HIS FORCE. The idea was simple. All who were to join him on the battlefield faced certain death and King Leonidas wanted to make sure that all who fought that day, had male heirs to look after their families and carry on the family name. None of them would die without issue, since they had already raised children.

King Leonidas' view touched me. You see, I have spoken to modern military men (US) and, generally speaking, the men fighting and dying in American wars are young, single men. When they die, they die without issue. They have no sons. They have no family to carry on their "name" and lineage. When they die, all dies with them.

Why have we forgotten this? How is it that the Spartans - a race that founded its entire culture on war - should have known this: no man should die, without having fathered descendants. King Leonidas ensured that, whatever happened at the Battle of Thermopylae, that no family line of a Spartan would die out because of it. There is great wisdom in that - a wisdom modern men have forgotten.

One in four American soldiers serving in Iraq ends up on disability benefit. One in four has permanent health consequences as a result of a short stint on the battle field. Many are disfigured. Many have brain injuries. Some lose organs in explosions that a man would least want to lose. Many of these men will never father children. Their family line dies with them. All because modern men have forgotten what the Spartans so clearly knew: a single man should not go to war, but only those who have descendants to look after those they leave behind.

I find it strange that we see it as the other way around, now. There is the idea that the family man should not go to war because if killed he will leave his family without him. That is tragic, true...but is it not more tragic when a single man dies and leaves no-one behind?

Generous insurance packages would ensure that the families of departed soldiers were looked after, if they were family men. At least, they would have descendants.

I wonder what the Spartans would have thought of modern armies and their strange practice of sending single men to the slaughter, without thought of the consequences? I doubt that they would be impressed by our "advanced" ways.

King Leonidas knew he was going to die on that battlefield, but he faced the prospect with a certain equanimity. His last words to his wife, Gorgo, Queen of Sparta were: "Marry a good man who will treat you well, bear him children, and live a good life." His concern, as ever, was with the continuity of life, even as he went to his death.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Valentine Cawley @ 10:09 PM  0 comments

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Free Public Transport in Singapore.

Public transport should be free in Singapore, to all, without limit. Quite simply, this one simple measure would do much more to help the poor than many another initiative. This would mean a gift of freedom of movement, when and where one pleased, irrespective of ability to pay - and that would be liberating for many.

A government spokesman has said that if the public want free buses and MRTs that it would cost a 1.5% raise in GST. I presume this was said to convince people NOT to ask for such a thing...yet, pause for awhile. What does a 1.5% tax on spending mean for Singaporeans? Well, that depends if you are a big spender or not.

If you are relatively poor and your family spends 1000 dollars a month on GST liable items, your GST payment is 15 dollars. Yet, if one family member takes two journeys at 1.50 dollars each, that would amount to 3 dollars a day - or 90 dollars a month. Thus, this person of modest means would save 75 dollars a month, from this initiative. What if this consists of a typical Singaporean family (two parents, one child)...well, that would be a saving of 7.10 dollars a day or 213 dollars a month - minus 15 dollars, which would equal 198 dollars not spent. That is a HUGE increase in the effective income of this poor family.

Indeed, is notable that GST liable spending must reach 6,000 dollars per month before the extra GST paid equals the transport costs of one typical person making two 1.50 dollar journeys per day for the month. Clearly, most families in Singapore are BETTER off with a 1.5% increase in GST and free public transport in return. (Especially since this is the income per person who travels on public transport required before this measure becomes more expensive than actually paying for public transport.)

Only the very rich (ie. Government ministers and their equivalents) would be inconvenienced by this tax rise. So, only the rich need complain about it. If transport is free, those who are of low income and middle income, will benefit immensely. In other words, the VAST MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IN SINGAPORE ARE BETTER OFF with free transport and 1.5% extra GST.

Then again, those with working memories will recall that last year's tax surplus was 6.4 Billion dollars with 7 % GST. Given that situation, is there any real need for an increase of GST, at all? Singapore's coffers are more than full enough to pay for free public transport for all, without any difficulty. This is the kind of initiative that would actually make a difference to people's lives. The poor, the elderly and those with large families (for whom travel can add up quite quickly) would all find the increased mobility a great boon. This is a quality of life issue. If the Singaporean government is really concerned about the quality of life of its citizens then public transport should soon be free for all.

There would be another benefit of free public transport: the famously over-crowded Singaporean roads would become clearer, for fewer would see so much value in driving expensive cars on expensive ERP penalized roads. Indeed, free public transport would do a lot more to free up the roads than all the ERP in the world is capable of achieving. In fact, the government's response to this will tell us what their true values are: is it to make money (such as from ERP) or is it to make life better for its citizens?

Free public transport will free the roads - something ERP has singularly failed to do.

So, let all who value the quality of life in Singapore put their voice forward to support the proposition that public transport in Singapore should be free for all, without limit, as soon as possible.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button
posted by Valentine Cawley @ 10:37 PM  22 comments

Page copy protected against web site content infringement by Copyscape