How smart should a President be?

Following up on my previous post, I would like you all to consider a simple question: how smart should a President be? Also, I would like you to consider a related question: how smart should a politician be?

To give you a scale to measure your intuitive answer against, perhaps you would like to think in the following way. A moderately gifted person, in a population with a mean IQ of 100 (typical for Western countries, or thereabouts), would have an IQ of 130. This occurs with a rarity of 1 in 44. In other words, the moderately gifted child, in an ordinary, average school, is probably the brightest child in the class. A highly gifted child, in a population of mean IQ 100, has an IQ of 145. This occurs with a rarity of 1 in 741 (with a standard deviation of 15, typical of the West). In other words the child with an IQ of 145, is probably the brightest child in an ordinary school, or thereabouts. An exceptionally gifted child has an IQ of 160. This occurs only in 1 in 31,560 people. So a child with this IQ, would probably be the brightest child any teacher in the school, has ever seen, in their entire careers. Alternatively, this child would be the brightest person in a fairly average sized suburban town area. A profoundly gifted child, in the same population, would have an IQ of 180. This occurs only once in 20,696,863 people, according to IQ rarity charts (though in practice it could be as high as, perhaps, one in a million). Such a child would be the brightest of his generation, in some nations. Alternatively, they would be the brightest person in a very large "mega city". It is interesting to note that, one step further than this, the brightest person in America is likely to be around an IQ of 187, which occurs once in 300 million, or so, people, according to the ideal normal statistical distribution of IQ. (Again, however, in the real world this is likely be an underestimate, for the reason that IQ is trimodal, it seems, not normal). Incidentally, the brightest person in the world, by this method of estimating, would be about an IQ of 195 which occurs ideally once in 8.3 billion. (Again, an underestimate of real world IQs.)

Now, the question is: what is the most appropriate level of IQ for the President of the United States (or any other nation)? Furthermore, what is the appropriate level of IQ for any politician of any level, as a minimum entry requirement? Please give your views in the comments section below.

Should a President be the intellectual equivalent of the brightest person in class (IQ 130); the brightest person in school (IQ145); the brightest person in a town (IQ 160); the brightest person in a mega city (IQ 180); the brightest person in America (IQ 187) or the brightest person in the world (IQ 195)?

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

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If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney's tax plans.

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have both promised tax cuts, if elected, that sound delicious to the voter’s ears. Barack Obama has said he will cut corporate taxes from 35% to 28%. He has also said he will maintain the Bush era tax cuts for most voters, and raise taxes on those earning 250,000 dollars a year and more. Mitt Romney on the other hand, rather more adventurously, has promised to cut all individual tax rates by 20% - and to cut corporation tax to just 25%. Now, my question is: are these two men sane?

There is a profound problem with the idea that broad ranging tax cuts are possible in America, at this time. America, as the whole world knows, is deeply in debt. Indeed, its debt is so large that it would take many years to conquer it, with wide ranging tax INCREASES, and cuts to all government funded public services. It is simple not possible to cut taxes, as offered by Obama and Romney, and maintain existing services. Should either of these tax plans be implemented then one of two things would happen: the American debt burden would grow rapidly – or all publicly funded services would have to be dramatically cut, to balance the books. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are making seductive promises to the electorate, which simply cannot be kept, without destroying America as a nation. Now, there is the real meaning of these promises: both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney would be prepared to destroy America, just to get elected.

America needs to cut public spending, and/or raise taxes, if it is to reduce its debt burden. This is the unavoidable truth. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney clearly believe that the American electorate is dumb...and perhaps they are right. They are certainly banking on the dumbness of the American people to get them elected, since what they are promising cannot be delivered without imperilling the United States itself.

I am hoping that the American electorate is bright enough to see the essential problem with promising significant tax cuts in an era of unprecedented national debt. It would be rash in the extreme to do so. Promising to do so, can only mean one thing – that the politician would do anything, absolutely anything, including bankrupt his own nation, just to get elected. What the American people need to do is pause for a while and reflect on whether they really want a politician like that, at the helm of their nation. By making such promises, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, reveal themselves to be dangerously unelectable. Should they be elected, the safety and long term security of the United States would be imperilled (if they keep their promises and are able to make them happen).

If any candidate wishes to promise significant tax cuts, they should also identify which public services they are going to cut, and by how much. The full truth needs to be declared. It is meaningless for a candidate to promise massive tax cuts, without also explaining how the budget will be balanced. It would also be very revealing if they do not intend to balance the budget, for that would be a plan to increase America’s debt burden...and that, now, at over 15 trillion dollars, is beyond the point at which it would be safe to increase it further.

So, remember this: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, by declaring such fantastic, even delusional tax cutting plans, are declaring that they would bankrupt America, if it meant they could get elected again. I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t want either of them in charge of my country. Would you?

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

The importance of a public platform.

It has long puzzled me as to why the world is run by people who seem dumber than certain others. There are many very bright people, who could, perhaps, provide solutions to some of the world’s problems, and yet, who never – or rarely - get heard. The problem here is simple: having ideas and having a platform are two different things. It is quite possible – even probable – to be a person of ideas, but not to be gifted with a platform from which to voice them.

It seems likely to me, that the kind of person who is good at having ideas...the “genius”...is probably also likely to be poor at the people skills that might help him or her build a public platform, from which to influence people and the course of the world. Thus, it is that we have the present situation in which people who don’t seem very bright (to me and, no doubt, to lots of others, too), end up in positions of great power and influence, whilst others, who are much brighter, never really reach public attention and, therefore, have little influence.

From my point of view, it seems easier to have good, interesting and useful ideas, than it does to acquire a powerful platform from which to voice them. This, of course, means that the ideas in question may never reach their potential for beneficial influence on the world. Part of the problem is that the international news media is not really interested in ideas, nowadays – they are interested in “celebrity” (which is, of course, the antithesis of those who have ideas). Thus, anyone with an interesting idea will find that, in general, the news media have no interest in covering it. This, of course, greatly restricts the potential range of influence of the idea in question. Such an idea might end up in an academic journal – but, such journals often have such small circulations, that very few people, indeed, will ever read it. In fact, an article published in a journal often has to be “discovered”, before it can be of much influence. By this, I mean, that it must come to the attention of a broader base of academics and other interested parties, perhaps through word of mouth, from the few who have actually read it. This is an uncertain process and may not happen for years after the publication of an article.

Publishing in academic journals is not, in general, a powerful enough platform to maximize the influence of an idea. It is only when, somehow, the idea “catches on” and is propelled into public consciousness through the rare occasions on which mass media DO cover an idea, that it may reach its potential for influence.

Some few thinkers, are fortunate enough to have become sufficiently famous such that their every utterance is covered in the international media: an obvious example would be Stephen Hawking, who need only mouth an opinion, to generate coverage. This phenomenon, however, has nothing to do with ideas, or the media being interested in them, but is to do with celebrity. Were Stephen Hawking not a celebrity, no-one would be listening to him, in any way, or to any degree, at all: his thoughts would be forever unknown.

Yet, given Stephen Hawking’s public platform it is quite clear that he is able to attempt to influence the course of events, by raising awareness of matters which interest him. This is a great power and it is one that would prove more valuable still in the hands of others (who shall probably never have it), who have many ideas, but little opportunity to catch attention with them.

One happy development, for those with ideas, who seek to influence, is the advent of the Internet for it offers the means to convey an idea, to the world, without any need for an intermediary. Of course, the fact that everyone now has this power, means that the Internet is cluttered with the thoughts of hundreds of millions of people – and so ideas are now hard to notice, for a different reason: they get lost in the chatter. Yet, there is hope. The Internet offers at least a basic platform to all who have a thought to speak. In the long term, perhaps, interesting ideas have a chance of being noticed and promulgated about the world, hopefully gaining them some kind of influence. I only hope that the Internet endures to allow these ideas to be discovered and implemented in due course.

Even with the Internet, however, the truth remains that those we come to know of as thinkers are not necessarily the best thinkers. They are, in fact, those people who have developed, for themselves, the best platforms. Our view, therefore, of whom the world’s “great” thinkers are, is formed almost entirely by the ranks of those who have secured a platform, for themselves, either through their own efforts, or some variety of inheritance of fame or influence. It seems likely to me, however, that many of the world’s greatest, most interesting and potentially most important thinkers, do not have such platforms and so their thoughts go relatively unnoticed, their work of less influence, not through any lack of merits, but through a lack of opportunity to be widely heard. In time, some in this category may come to be known and their work may finally become influential – but that is a slow and haphazard process. In the meantime, the media will entertain us with the “thoughts” of those who have good platforms and distract us from the fact that there might be many others, unheard, out there, with better ideas to offer.

As a final thought, one has to ask: are the world's political leaders truly the best the world has to offer? I find it hard to believe. A recent example that leads me to question the quality of leaders and potential leaders, is Rick Perry's refusal to believe in man made global warming, despite the fact that the science behind it, is very simple indeed. To my mind, this makes him dim of wit and unsuited to any high office - yet, there he is running for leadership of the Republicans and potentially a future President of the USA. He is an example of a man of little substance, who is good at building a platform for himself. There are, I am sure, many better thinkers, who would offer more to the USA, as a leader, than Rick Perry is able to offer, who simply don't have the right platform. They are good at thinking, but not necessarily good at self-promotion.

The world would benefit from an inversion here. All those who are good at thinking but poor at self-promotion and platform building, should be thrust to the fore - and all those who are good at self promotion and platform building, but not so strong at actual thinking, should be steadfastly ignored. Were this so, we would have a world we would want to live in: a world that is solving its problems and making progress towards a better state.

In the meantime, think carefully about how you cast your vote: are you voting for an excellent thinker, or an excellent platform builder (who is not so good at thinking)? It would be wise to distinguish the two, for only the true thinker is likely to have the mental wherewithal, to solve the world's problems. Of course, rarely, the two are one: a good thinker has a good platform. I wish that were always so.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.).

Texas Governor Rick Perry should not be President of the United States.

Texas Governor Rick Perry has come out saying that he doesn’t believe in global warming.

"I think we're seeing almost weekly, or even daily, scientists that are coming forward and questioning the original idea that manmade global warming is what is causing the climate to change,", he assured New Hampshire voters Wednesday.

He went onto to say that he didn’t want to spend billions or even trillions of dollars because of an “unproven theory”.

Now, I don’t know about you, but it is quite clear that the world is warming up. I just have to compare memories of my childhood to the world as it has become, to see that. Furthermore, it is well known that we are pumping historically high levels of CO2 – a greenhouse gas which induces planetary warming – into the atmosphere. Most climate scientists are of the view that recent global warming is man made, as a consequence. The connection between CO2 and global warming is clear, strong and simple. The science behind it is well known and not difficult to understand. Yet, Rick Perry is a global warming denier: he refuses to see and to accept responsibility for (as a race) the changes taking place in the world. Therefore, if he ever became President, it is obvious that Rick Perry would do NOTHING to mitigate the human impact on global warming. America would continue to be, as it is, among the world’s most irresponsible countries, in the face of global warming.

Normally, I ignore American politics, since I have an instinctive dislike for the juvenile theatrics it represents. However, in the case of Rick Perry and his “I won’t do anything about global warming” stance, I feel that I have to comment. Don’t elect Rick Perry as President of the United States. To do so, would be to ensure that America continues to do irreparable harm to the future of the planet Earth and put in question, thereby, the fate of the Human Race, itself.

Mankind faces many problems in the coming decades. Global warming is just one of them. Peak oil, is another. Global food shortages are likely to be a third dire problem. The people of the world do not need a US President, who is able to deny the reality of these problems and deliberately do nothing about them. Rick Perry should not be President of the United States, because he simply doesn’t grasp the issues he would face, as President. It does seem likely, given his remarks, that, again, Rick Perry is not a very bright candidate from the Republican Party. America seems to specialize in dumb politicians: are there no intelligent people interested in being leaders in the USA – or are they all deselected, at some early stage, so we never get to see them?

An intelligent candidate would err on the side of caution, in the global warming situation. That is, an intelligent candidate would consider it wise to do everything possible to reduce the human contributions to global warming – that is CO2 release – simply because the risk of doing nothing, is simply too great. The possible consequences of unrestrained global warming, could put the whole human race in jeopardy. It is foolish to play political games, or to seek the business vote (through “not spending billions of dollars”), when the consequences of inaction are so severe.

The USA and the world do not need a global warming denier as President. What the world really needs is an ENVIRONMENTALIST, as President of the United States. So, definitely don’t vote in Texas Governor Rick Perry as President of the United States

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.).

A vote for President.

About four or five months ago, on a whim, I asked Tiarnan, four, an unexpected question.

“Who is smarter?” I began, catching his attention by the suddenness of my question.

His curious eyes peered up at me, in expectation.

“Daddy, or the President of America?”, I continued.

“Daddy!”, he said without even a millisecond of hesitation, as if nothing else could possibly be true.

It was sweet to hear his certainty, but then his certainty led me to reflect: not only was it most likely to be true of me, but true, too, of millions of people around the world. There are almost certainly enough people smarter than President Obama, to populate a very large country with…yet, he is President, and they are not. Is this right? Is this wise?

The question here is: should the President of America (or any other nation) be among the brightest of the bright? From the point of view of understanding the issues and making wise decisions, I would say that the brighter they are, the better. Obama has, for instance, in my view, made decisions that show a lack of moral intelligence: he just doesn’t grasp the issues deeply enough to see the essential moral problems of the questions he is called upon to answer…so he gives immoral answers (Google my prior posts on Obama and ethics). However, there is one problem: leaders have to lead – and, in practical terms, people don’t tend to follow someone who is too much brighter than they are – because they just don’t understand them.

The rule of thumb is that a leader should not be more than 30 IQ points smarter than the led, to permit effective communication. This certainly holds in the case of Singapore, for Lee Kuan Yew admitted in one interview on TV that his IQ was in the 120s…this would place him above average and still able to communicate to his followers, but does mean that he is most certainly not the brightest of the bright. He is just good enough to guide a majority of people – which is all you need in politics.

So, Obama has a brain. Yes. However, it is not the best of brains. It is an adequate one – one that allows him to bring to him, the greatest proportion of the electorate. Were Obama much brighter, he would probably have not been elected, for his way of thinking would be too opaque and unreachable to his electorate. Thus, America will have to be satisfied with Obama, the above average. Unless the electoral system changes, there will never be an “Obama the genius”, in American democratic politics.

That is why the world is the way it is. The very bright sit at home and wonder at the stupidity of the decisions made by politicians who are only bright enough to do their jobs, moderately well, at best. The very bright rarely get the chance to play a role in such arenas, simply because of the way they communicate with the world. Only if we moved away from the present form of democratic governments, would this ever be likely to change.

Until then, little children the world over, can rightfully declare their Daddies to be cleverer than the President of the United States – and in many cases, it would actually be true.

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page. To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 4, this month, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here: http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at: http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is at http://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

What if Barack Obama does not win?

Senator Barack Obama is leading in all polls in the race to be the American President. As I write, he leads 51.1 % to 44.2 % against Senator John McCain, on the Yahoo poll. He should therefore win by a landslide, but will he?

I wonder because of historical reasons. There is the so-called Bradley effect, named after a black politician, Tom Bradley, who led by a long way, in the polls, in the race to be California governor in 1982 - but then lost the election. The common understanding of that situation is that white people did not wish to be seen as racist, in polling, so declared that they would vote for him - but that in the privacy of the polling booth, their true opinions showed - and they voted against him. One concern is that the same thing might happen to Obama: if America is still sufficiently racist, there might be a surprising degree of votes against him - and votes for the other candidate, John McCain, simply because he is not black.

There are other concerns too. Many believe that the 2004 election of George Bush was flawed, owing to electoral fraud. There were some shocking practices at work. In one case, an area received more votes for the Republican Bush than there were actually voters in that area! Clearly, fraud was at work here. There were also allegations of interference with the electronic voting machines, with staff from the company that made the machines seen entering instructions into the machines shortly before a change of voting pattern of against Bush, to for Bush.

Worse still, in some Democratic areas of America, voting machines were unavailable for up to seven hours, leaving potential voters unable to vote AT ALL. They either had to queue for many hours - or give up and go home without voting. Of course, many of them did just that, giving the election to Bush. Will there be voting machine shortages in Democratic areas in this election?

In the present election, too, there are other worrying developments. In some areas flyers have been distributed, on official looking paper, saying that Republicans are to vote on November 4th, and Democrats on November 5th. Should any Democrat believe this, they would turn up on the 5th to find the election over.

I find all of this very disappointing. America is supposedly the world's leading democracy - but it suffers a little too much from the dishonest actions of individuals trying to influence the outcome of the election, by any means possible. This needs to be curbed. It would be wise to trace the culprits in all irregularities and confer long prison sentences upon them, to discourage such practices in future. Whether the Americans will do so, is another matter - after all, if the practices are too widespread, the winner of the election may have been "elected" by them - and would hardly, therefore, be interested in punishing those responsible.

Senator Barack Obama is leading consistently in all polls, across the board, with margins in some polls of up to 13%. If he does not win, therefore, there will be the widespread belief, in America, that the polls have been rigged and that the election has been stolen. (There will be this belief even if the true cause is that of racism: such is the effect of the instances of electoral irregularities that have come to light, so far.) This belief can only lead to trouble on a grand scale. It is quite possible that America will see nationwide riots, if it is President McCain, rather than President Obama.

Even if President Obama is duly elected. I have one further concern: what if he is assassinated? America nurtures a fairly large body of white supremacists: surely they would find the election of a Black President, insufferable? It is likely that, upon election, President Obama will become the target of many plots, from white supremacists, to remove him by force of the bullet or the bomb. Should he be assassinated, of course, chaos is likely to ensue in the United States, with the nation divided along racial lines. No doubt President Obama's death would not be the only one to occur should he be assassinated.

America is in a difficult position therefore. If Barack Obama does not win, America will face chaos; if he does win, but is then assassinated, America will face chaos. So, whether or not President Obama is elected, there could be trouble to come, for the United States of America.

As an observer, I find it intriguing that all of these problems come at a time when America is facing its biggest economic crisis in modern times. Whoever is elected, America faces interesting times ahead (in the Chinese sense of the term).

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

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