Is the USA an incapable nation?

I had to ask. One fact prompted me to do so. The USA, at this time, has no means to send astronauts into space. It is entirely dependent on paying the Russians for the privilege of hitching a ride on its spacecraft. This, to me, seems a very humbling fact.

It is the 50^th anniversary of John Glenn’s adventure in space. One would have expected, that, after the passage of 50 years, America would truly have become a spacefaring nation. But no...it seems to be in retreat, in some respects. Fifty years ago, America had the means to send a man into space. Now, they don’t. That is quite a striking fact. Something, clearly, is wrong with modern America.

Let us talk a look at the situation. NASA and America knew for a long time, that the shuttle was to be retired. They knew when it would be retired. Yet, what they did not do, was to ensure that a replacement was ready in time for that retirement. This seems to be a failure of planning, of foresight and, perhaps, the willingness to fund such a replacement. Ultimately, it is a failure of America as a nation.

Everyone imagines that NASA has a huge budget. There is a common assumption that vast sums are being spent on space. However, the true figures are very much smaller. NASA recently announced a 17.7 billion dollar budget request for 2013. My immediate reaction to that: “How pathetic!” It is a miniscule budget compared to the supposed wealth and status of the American nation. The truth is such a small budget (compared to the 3 or 4 trillion spent on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) shows, with overwhelming clarity, that space is simply not a priority, interest or asset of the United States of America. It shows us that space faring is being neglected, indeed, largely ignored. So small is NASA’s budget and the American commitment to space, that the wealth of a few individual billionaires, would be enough to sustain the present level of expenditure, indefinitely. That is nothing.

America was once a great nation – or at least, seemed great. I don’t, however, believe that it is, any longer. The very fact that America is no longer a space faring nation, indicates a precipitous decline in its capabilities and willingness to maintain capabilities. That can only mean that there are profound problems elsewhere that are distracting attention from space efforts.

It seems likely that, in a few decades, another nation will be the world’s leading space nation. That nation could very well be China. If so, America has only one entity to blame: itself. America is wilfully throwing away its lead in the space arena, simply by not caring enough to maintain it. That is emblematic of a nation in decline, a nation that has lost it pride and its ability to sustain its historical advantages.

America is fast becoming an incapable nation – a has been State. I wonder whether it will be seen, in another fifty years time, as the UK is now: a shadow of its former self, a once great power, hanging on to the vestiges of its position, through international tradition alone?

We shall see. What is for certain, however, is that whilst America neglects space and the attendant technologies required to attain it, other nations are forging ahead. The history of space travel was once an American province. The future of space travel is likely to be of a very different origin.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

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If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

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Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Newt Gingrich's moonbase plan.

Newt Gingrich has pledged to build an American lunar base – or moonbase, as it is more popularly known – by 2020, if he is elected. This is both an ambitious plan and a necessary one, if Americans are to maintain a lead in space, technology and, potentially, energy production.
There are problems with this plan, however. One issue is that America, on the retirement of the shuttle, has no launch vehicle of its own, at least for several years and is reliant on hitching a ride on Russian spacecraft, for now, and, in future, on private ones under development. America is not really a space faring nation at this time. Another issue is that it takes much time to research and develop new spacecraft and new missions, of any real scale. Though under George Bush, NASA spent 9 billion dollars looking a lunar visit. There is no doubt more work pertaining to a moonbase, yet to be done. A spacecraft capable of lunar trips would have to be designed and built. That is a lot to get done in just eight years.

There are other issues too. The Russians and the Chinese both have been speaking of putting together moonbases of their own – the Russians wish to do so, in cooperation with the US. So, there is a certain urgency if America is to get there first. If Newt Gingrich is not elected President, it is unlikely that America will win that particular race. After all, President Obama, with his typical lack of vision, cancelled Bush’s Constellation programme which had planned to take man back to the moon. Obama, it seems, doesn’t see the value in such things. So if Obama is elected again, America’s space plans will have to be decidedly more prosaic for the time being. (Though oddly, Obama did suggest that America forget the moon and go to an asteroid and Mars instead...a much greater ambition, requiring much greater funding. I think, perhaps, he doesn’t fully understand the details of this, since funding concerns was one of the reasons he cancelled the Constellation programme).

Many people have reacted to Newt Gingrich’s proposed moonbase, as if he is off his trolley. He has been buried in scorn from many quarters. Yet, there is nothing impossible about his dream – except perhaps the timescale. Were America to actually fund this proposal, it would happen, in due course. A moonbase is well within our technical capabilities. Indeed, Newt Gingrich is to be admired for having such a vision for America. Without visionary politicians, the future of the world will look rather dull. It is those with vision, who craft a future worth seeing. So I applaud his guts in stating what seems to most, such a visionary near future. I found even more telling about the scale of his vision, when he remarked that once 13,000 Americans were living on the moon, that they could apply to become another state of the USA! How about that for ambitious?
There is something here, that has not been brought up in the discussions about Gingrich’s lunar dream. It is essential, for the long term survival of man, that there be a second location for humanity, other than Earth. It is inevitable that the Earth will face a large scale catastrophe again, as it has in the past. The history of Earth, is a history of extinction...mass extinctions. Indeed, Mankind is precipitating His own mass extinction through carelessness, as I write. One day, Mankind may face extinction on Earth, through a natural catastrophe or a man-made disaster. It is imperative that humanity has a “back up”. Were there a lunar civilization which had got to the point of being self-sustaining, then Mankind would survive an earthly extinction event.

So, though I doubt he is considering the issue, Newt Gingrich’s vision for a permanent lunar base, is one that could not be more important. A lunar base would almost guarantee the long term survival of the human race, by giving us a second chance in the event of mass catastrophe. To be viable as a backup for humanity the lunar base would have to be quite large, with a minimum population of 150 of mixed sexes. This is the smallest number likely to allow long term breeding of the population without too much inbreeding. (If I recall correctly from past reading).

Thus, Newt Gingrich’s view of a new state, with 13,000 Americans resident, would be sufficient to provide a genetic backup to the majority of Mankind, being large enough to store a wide range of genetic variants. It would allow humanity to survive the unforeseen disasters that lie ahead of us.

What if America is led by a man without a vision for space or humanity, like President Obama or his ilk? Then we can expect that China or perhaps Russia will create such a moonbase first. Indeed, without the necessary vision, perhaps America will forego such a base. My reaction to this is perhaps not what you might expect. I would rather that there were a Chinese moonbase, than no moonbase at all. At least, in the event of catastrophe a subset of Mankind would survive, rather than none at all. Thus, it is an advance for humanity, even if only China establishes a moonbase.

It is my hope that a new space race of a kind will ignite, with America vying to get to the moon and form a base, before the Chinese (with the US perhaps working with the Russians) and vice versa. If such a sense of competition is established, it would provoke the competing nations into making the necessary commitment of resources to the task, such that it will actually happen.
One thing that politicians balk at is the cost of a moonbase. I have seen a low estimate of 35 billion dollars to establish the base and 7.35 billion dollars to run it annually. I have also seen one estimate of 700 billion dollars. Whichever it is, I am struck by the strangeness of the thought processes of those who hesitate before such costs – because of one thing: they have no reluctance to commit to spending multi-TRILLIONS of dollars in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – but stall at spending much less on space colonization. It seems that, in America, money is always available to kill people, but not to save the long term future of Mankind.

It is time for Man to take the long term view. We need space colonies if we are to survive as a race. There is no alternative to this. There can be no indefinite survival on Earth, alone. So let us go out into space, and colonize as many worlds as we can in our solar system, and many others.
I am an outsider to American politics. I don’t know that much about Newt Gingrich. Yet, it would be interesting to see him actually become President and strive to put American’s on the moon – permanently. That would certainly make 2020 a year to remember...for all Mankind.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

The study of Geography

Strange names appear on the lips of my son, Ainan, 7: Valles Marineris, Olympus Mons and the Caloris Basin. These are terms that he has challenged me with: "Where is the Caloris Basin, Daddy?" etc.

Clearly, Ainan has become interested in geography...but what kind of geography is this? I had a clue in that I recognized Olympus Mons - the 24 km high flat-topped volcano on Mars. Ainan is pouring over the geography of the planets, and Solar system bodies - in particular the geography of Mars (areography) where Valles Marineris is situated (a 4,000 km long, 7 km deep canyon, by the way) - and the Caloris Basin, from Mercury (which is a 1,400 km wide impact crater. Ouch.)

Ainan is familiar with many other names, details and information on all the bodies in the Solar System. "Epimetheus?" he challenges...a moon of Saturn. The time for light to reach Earth from Titan? 1 hour and 7 minutes, at light speed (minimum distance apart).

Ainan knows the Solar System better than he knows Earth.

Ainan is only 7 years old. No doubt he will grow up into a world in which people live appreciably longer than the generation before. Is, therefore, his study of the geography of the planets, other bodies of the Solar System, and astronomy - an irrelevance, or will he, one day become familiar with some of these places in person? It is strange to wonder how far and how fast things will change. It is strange to consider what the world he - and my other children - will grow up to live in, will be like. If I look back over the course of my own life, there has been so much change. When I was Ainan's age, there were no personal computers, no mobile phones, no Space Shuttle, no internet...the list could go on quite a way, but you get the idea. What, therefore, will there be in thirty, forty, fifty years time? Could Ainan ever visit the Moon, or Mars? Will it ever become normal practice for people to inhabit these bodies?

The answer to the latter question is, I am sure, an undoubted yes: the future of Man will be a space-going one. As for the answer to the first, I think it depends on the development of the transport systems: if they are affordable and safe, I think many of our children, Ainan included, may one day take a trip off planet, perhaps, in some cases, to stay. If they remain expensive and hazardous, that space going future may be restricted to the few with wealth and an appetite for high risk (like the approximately one in 25 failure rate of Shuttles (as it was in the Challenger days))

There is no telling, at this time, how long our children will live. If science solves the problem of aging before our children begin to suffer from it, they may live hundreds of years. In such a world, Ainan will come to see space-faring as routine: it will be as normal as a transatlantic flight. In such a world, he may one day see these fabled places that now he studies in devoted curiosity. Ainan may one day see Epimetheus outside his spaceship portal.

I wonder in this way, for I see no reason why the future should be closed and circumscribed. It should be open-ended and filled with possibility and wonder. With the rate of change in the scientific and technological world, our children will live to see a much different world from our own, one that we cannot, perhaps, imagine, without failing to capture its richness.

I would not be surprised if, one day, Ainan's unusual knowledge of planetary geography and astronomy actually has a use, for him.

In a way, I hope it does, for then it would mean that Mankind will be much safer and freer from the possibility of extinction. The day we are living off Earth, alone, is the day Mankind can hope for an indefinite future.

Now, that is something worth hoping for.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged seven years and nine months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, four years and two months, and Tiarnan, nineteen months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, gifted adults and gifted children in general. Thanks.)