Lunar water and the future of man in Space.

NASA has discovered lunar water...and lots of it. This is both good news and potentially bad news. I shall explain.

On October 9th 2009, a mission involving the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite, LCROSS discovered 25 gallons of water in a plume of dust kicked up, one mile into space, by an empty rocket hull smashing into the Cabeus crater. The crater had been chosen because it is permanently shadowed, at its position near the South Pole: the sun never gets the chance to heat it up and evaporate its contents.

Now, the good part of this news is clear. It seems certain, now, that there is plenty of water on the moon, in such permanently shadowed places. Therefore, a moon base could be established much more cheaply than otherwise would be possible. The water for drinking would not have to be lifted into space - and so too, could rocket fuel be manufactured in situ. The moon is a much more viable location for a permanent base than ever had been thought, before. Yet, there is a danger here. The new attractiveness and relative cheapness of the moon might distract Mankind from a much better prospect: Mars.

Should a permanent base be established on the moon, it may be that Man might delay, for a time too long to contemplate, the establishment of a colony on Mars. The red planet offers a lot more to humans than the Moon ever could. Mars could be terraformed, over centuries, into a new home for Man. The moon could never be that, however much easier it might be to establish a base, now. The moon is not, and could never be, a second Earth. Mars, however, is a few clever technologies from being a second Earth. We need a second Earth, much more than we need a permanent moon base - and if the latter were to prevent the former from happening, then we really should consider whether a moon base should ever happen at all.

NASA's resources are finite. They are, in fact, very modest (about 18 billion dollars per year). Thus, space exploration has not been prioritized by the Americans for some decades. Were its resources greater, then a moon base and a mars base would both be within reach, in the next couple of decades. However, it lacks the money presently for either. The economic danger this new discovery presents is that it might persuade NASA's paymasters to support a moon base...which is now going to be much cheaper than expected...but NOT a Mars mission, which remains as expensive as ever.

Ideally, we should have both a moon base and a Martian presence. However, if we are only to have one: it should be Mars that we open up, not the moon.

The answer to this, of course, is not to force NASA to make difficult choices - but to give it the money it needs. As I have noted before, the long-term survival of Mankind depends on us getting "offworld". Man needs to establish offworld colonies if it is to ensure its own survival to the far reaches of time. That, in fact, should be the true mission of NASA: the survival of Mankind. Were NASA to define itself in those terms - and were its paymasters to take that mission seriously - then Mankind could breathe a little more easily that it has a future to look forward to.

If the discovery of water on the Moon is used wisely, as a means to facilitate new missions, then that is good. However, it must not become a long-term distraction from what should be NASA's real aim: establishing an ongoing human presence on Mars.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

IMDB is the Internet Movie Database for film and tv professionals. If you would like to look at my IMDb listing for which another fifteen credits are to be uploaded, (which will probably take several months before they are accepted) please go to: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3438598/ As I write, the listing is new and brief - however, by the time you read this it might have a dozen or a score of credits...so please do take a look. My son, Ainan Celeste Cawley, also has an IMDb listing. His is found at: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3305973/ My wife, Syahidah Osman Cawley, has a listing as well. Hers is found at: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

The Future of The Human Race

Do people care about the future of the Human race? Is it something to which intelligent people give thought?

Now, one would think so. One would think that no concern could, ultimately, be greater, for those who are intelligent, than that the race of which we are each but one, individual member, should have a long-term future. Yet, such supposition might be in error.

Yesterday, I found myself in a conversation with a number of professional men, in their thirties and forties. They were in respectable demanding jobs in such areas as finance, marketing and public relations. They were, therefore, considered to be intelligent, given the responsible and sometimes complex nature of their work. They were all, also, financially successful. Somehow the topic of the colonization of other planets came up. I spoke in its favour. To my surprise, EVERYONE THERE was against it.

"Why would anyone want to go to Mars?" said one scoffing professional.

"Well, because if all of mankind lives on one planet, eventually something will happen, and we will become extinct."

"I couldn't care less.", he retorted, somewhat harshly, his eyes seeming to mock me for caring about something so unimportant as the future of the Human race.

Seeing my way forward blocked in his unmoving eyes, I turned for support to the man standing next to me, a financier of some kind.

"If we don't colonize other planets, there is no chance of mankind surviving long term."

"I couldn't give a f*** about the human race!", he said, his face a little too close to mine, his voice rather aggressive in holding such an opinion.

I couldn't believe it. Here was a body of men who cared nothing for the future of the human race. One other, who did not speak directly to me, looked on, throughout, laughing each time I spoke of the need for Man to spread into space, to ensure its survival. I was surrounded by profound skeptics regarding the worth of Mankind.

I tried to explain it to them in simple terms. "It is just like anything else." I began, quietly, but firmly. "You don't put all your eggs in one basket. Thus, you can't have all of Mankind on one dirt ball...just like you wouldn't put all your money with Madoff." I added, mindful of the financial background of more than half of my audience.

The one who couldn't give a f*** about the future of the human race then scoffed: "Just give me one reason why anyone should go to Mars."

Well, economic arguments are something these people are likely to understand, I thought. "Well, it is much easier and more economically feasible to mine the asteroid belt using Mars as a base, than Earth. Then you could ship a huge amount of metals to Earth."

"Why would you want to do that?", he persisted, no reason being good enough for him. "We already have a huge amount of metals and no-one wants them. Have you seen the prices on the commodities market?"

Again, his thoughts were limited to money as the only justification for anything.

"That is a temporary economic situation. You could use the metals to make things."

"So you could increase the productive capacity of the Earth." he noted.

"Yes."

"What would you make?"

"Well, you could make lots of spaceships and spread outwards...", I said, somewhat deliberately, so as to challenge his world view, perhaps to needle him a little.

"We have a different viewpoint.", he concluded, trying to end the discussion.

I had one final point.

"You could use the materials to build solar power stations, giving cheap energy, much more energy than we presently have."

"For where?", he said, not caring about anywhere else but: "For Earth?"

"Yes."

"I think we use too much energy already."

"This would give us lots of cheap energy."

At this point, one of the others chipped in. He was involved in marketing.

"Have you ever been to Hawaii?", his eyes peered intently at me, like a cat waiting for a mouse to come out of its hole.

"No."

He seemed gratified: the mouse was out.

"Well, if you had, you wouldn't want to go to Mars. It is just beautiful."

"I didn't say I would go...but I think some people should. It should be colonized."

"What would they do there? Living in a bubble."

"They would terraform it. That would be their job."

He wasn't convinced.

"How would they do that?"

"Well they could release CFCs into the atmosphere this would cause global warming, which would promote the release of CO2, as the caps melted, which would promote more global warming and so on."

"And you are going to grow forests?", he mocked ever so sure of his position.

"Not at first, but eventually. You would have to start with lower life forms."

"Lichen." he acknowledged.

"Yes. That would start the process of making oxygen."

"Who would want to go to Mars?", he doubted.

"Lots of scientists would love to go."

"That is the problem." He said with a strange certainty, since I couldn't see any problem at all.

"Plenty of science has been done on this. The science is there...but the political will is not."

"Thank God for that." he said, a little louder, gratified.

I wasn't going to argue this one, when surrounded by a room of skeptics - but I was glad to have raised the topic, for it gave me an appreciation of a problem that I had not known existed: those who think about the long-term future of the Human race will be faced with opposition from a seeming majority of people who JUST DON'T CARE about the future of the Human race. That surprised me.

Having considered it, I would say that it is a property of a mature human mind, that such a person should be concerned about the long term future of both the Earth and the Human race. Absence of such a concern indicates, to my mind, an immaturity of mind - for the level has not been reached at which the person is thinking beyond their own needs and concerns, the level at which they think beyond the narrow confines of their own life and lifetime.

This group of professional men had not reached the level of inner growth that would allow them to be concerned about the long-term future of the Human race. They were still stuck on the immediate concerns of their own life (indeed, almost exclusively on the question of "How rich am I going to get?")

I hope, for the sake of the future of the Human race that such short-sighted attitudes as I encountered yesterday are rare. Even if they are not, such uncaring attitudes should not be allowed to influence policy. Major decisions affecting the future of Earth and the Human race should only be made by those who value the continuation of both.

Mankind needs to colonize space if it is to survive. It won't do so, as long as the short-term thinking I encountered yesterday predominates. Nothing could be more important to us all, than that the human enterprise endures, as long as the Universe does. We should, therefore, take all steps necessary to give Mankind such a chance to endure. The colonization of space is one such critical step.

I, for one, hope that it occurs in my lifetime. I would like to know that Mankind was not captive on one planet and at the mercy of its fate.

Thus, I look forward to what is to come: the Space race between the USA and China, to return to the Moon and to go to Mars, beyond that (at least the USA intends to visit Mars). I only hope that they stay when they get there. There is a world to build. Americans have done it once...why not do it again?

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Space colonization and the survival of Mankind.

How long will Mankind endure? Will humans live to see the embers of the Universe die...or will we only last a few more brief decades and then be gone?

One thing is for sure: if Mankind stays on Earth, we are doomed. This is not to say that the Earth is immediately imperilled, but it is to say that nothing that lives on Earth can endure forever. No lifeform that exists on but one planet, could ever be immortal. At some time, a catastrophic event - such as asteroid impact, war, or epidemic, will ensure the end of humanity, on Earth.

It is fashionable to decry space exploration. Many people who should know better speak of space exploration as if it had no value or purpose at all. They say that the money would be better spent on alleviating third world poverty, etc. What they do not understand, however, is that we have no choice, where space exploration is concerned, if we wish to see the long-term survival of Mankind. Without space colonization, Mankind will not survive, that is for sure.

What, for instance, does establishing a colony on the Moon, or better still, Mars, achieve? As long as the number of people on the Moon or Mars, is above the threshold of about 150 to 180 people required for long-term survival of the colony (through prevention of too much inbreeding) and as long as the colony is self-sustaining, it would achieve a very important goal, indeed: a backup for humanity, itself. Were humans to be wiped out, on Earth, enough would survive on the Moon or Mars, to allow Mankind to continue on the colonized world - or to replenish Earth, itself in a reverse colonization (an idea first suggested, I believe, by Paul Davies).

One colony gives humanity two chances of long-term survival. Simply having one, single, viable colony greatly enhances the prospects that humanity will have a long-term future. More colonies would further increase the probability that Mankind will endure. The best kind of colonies will be those in other star systems, for that would increase the measure of security even further. Interstellar colonies will, however, be further in the future, being rather more difficult to establish.

So, if you want humanity to survive ino the distant future, do what you can, today, to influence decision-makers, to back space colonization. Do what you can to ensure that Moon and Mars colonies (which are envisioned) get the funding they need. Back politicians who back space exploration. Space colonization should be one of humanity's top priorities, but it isn't. The war in Iraq is reckoned to have cost 3 TRILLION dollars, according to an article in March, 2008 in the Washington Post, by Linda J. Bilmes and Joseph E. Stiglitz. Given that, what would you guess NASA's annual budget to be? Have a good guess. Well, it is just 16 billion dollars a year. The Americans have just spent 187 years worth of NASA's budget on a war without end. Just imagine what spending that money on space colonization would have achieved: Mankind's long-term future would have been assured. Does killing people in Iraq ensure the long-term future of humanity? Or does it ensure long-term turmoil on Earth? I would rather have seen every single war dollar spent as a space dollar: for then Mankind would have a better future, indeed.

Wherever you are in the world, vote for those who are backing space ventures. The future of Man depends on it. If you can think of any other way to support space colonization...then do so. I, for one, would like the comfort of knowing that Man was not just a one planet species - for then we would have a chance of enduring.

The technology we need to do this, already exists: all that is in doubt is the funding and political vision. Why not try to open the eyes of decision makers, to a deeper view of Man's future?

(Interesting footnote: Three well known physicists have each spoken in favour of space colonization as a means to safeguard humanity: Stephen Hawking, J. Richard Gott III, and Paul Davies. The first two, in particular, have stated that this is an urgent matter which needs to be done, soon.)

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.)

The study of Geography

Strange names appear on the lips of my son, Ainan, 7: Valles Marineris, Olympus Mons and the Caloris Basin. These are terms that he has challenged me with: "Where is the Caloris Basin, Daddy?" etc.

Clearly, Ainan has become interested in geography...but what kind of geography is this? I had a clue in that I recognized Olympus Mons - the 24 km high flat-topped volcano on Mars. Ainan is pouring over the geography of the planets, and Solar system bodies - in particular the geography of Mars (areography) where Valles Marineris is situated (a 4,000 km long, 7 km deep canyon, by the way) - and the Caloris Basin, from Mercury (which is a 1,400 km wide impact crater. Ouch.)

Ainan is familiar with many other names, details and information on all the bodies in the Solar System. "Epimetheus?" he challenges...a moon of Saturn. The time for light to reach Earth from Titan? 1 hour and 7 minutes, at light speed (minimum distance apart).

Ainan knows the Solar System better than he knows Earth.

Ainan is only 7 years old. No doubt he will grow up into a world in which people live appreciably longer than the generation before. Is, therefore, his study of the geography of the planets, other bodies of the Solar System, and astronomy - an irrelevance, or will he, one day become familiar with some of these places in person? It is strange to wonder how far and how fast things will change. It is strange to consider what the world he - and my other children - will grow up to live in, will be like. If I look back over the course of my own life, there has been so much change. When I was Ainan's age, there were no personal computers, no mobile phones, no Space Shuttle, no internet...the list could go on quite a way, but you get the idea. What, therefore, will there be in thirty, forty, fifty years time? Could Ainan ever visit the Moon, or Mars? Will it ever become normal practice for people to inhabit these bodies?

The answer to the latter question is, I am sure, an undoubted yes: the future of Man will be a space-going one. As for the answer to the first, I think it depends on the development of the transport systems: if they are affordable and safe, I think many of our children, Ainan included, may one day take a trip off planet, perhaps, in some cases, to stay. If they remain expensive and hazardous, that space going future may be restricted to the few with wealth and an appetite for high risk (like the approximately one in 25 failure rate of Shuttles (as it was in the Challenger days))

There is no telling, at this time, how long our children will live. If science solves the problem of aging before our children begin to suffer from it, they may live hundreds of years. In such a world, Ainan will come to see space-faring as routine: it will be as normal as a transatlantic flight. In such a world, he may one day see these fabled places that now he studies in devoted curiosity. Ainan may one day see Epimetheus outside his spaceship portal.

I wonder in this way, for I see no reason why the future should be closed and circumscribed. It should be open-ended and filled with possibility and wonder. With the rate of change in the scientific and technological world, our children will live to see a much different world from our own, one that we cannot, perhaps, imagine, without failing to capture its richness.

I would not be surprised if, one day, Ainan's unusual knowledge of planetary geography and astronomy actually has a use, for him.

In a way, I hope it does, for then it would mean that Mankind will be much safer and freer from the possibility of extinction. The day we are living off Earth, alone, is the day Mankind can hope for an indefinite future.

Now, that is something worth hoping for.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged seven years and nine months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, four years and two months, and Tiarnan, nineteen months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, gifted adults and gifted children in general. Thanks.)