Lunar water and the future of man in Space.

NASA has discovered lunar water...and lots of it. This is both good news and potentially bad news. I shall explain.

On October 9th 2009, a mission involving the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite, LCROSS discovered 25 gallons of water in a plume of dust kicked up, one mile into space, by an empty rocket hull smashing into the Cabeus crater. The crater had been chosen because it is permanently shadowed, at its position near the South Pole: the sun never gets the chance to heat it up and evaporate its contents.

Now, the good part of this news is clear. It seems certain, now, that there is plenty of water on the moon, in such permanently shadowed places. Therefore, a moon base could be established much more cheaply than otherwise would be possible. The water for drinking would not have to be lifted into space - and so too, could rocket fuel be manufactured in situ. The moon is a much more viable location for a permanent base than ever had been thought, before. Yet, there is a danger here. The new attractiveness and relative cheapness of the moon might distract Mankind from a much better prospect: Mars.

Should a permanent base be established on the moon, it may be that Man might delay, for a time too long to contemplate, the establishment of a colony on Mars. The red planet offers a lot more to humans than the Moon ever could. Mars could be terraformed, over centuries, into a new home for Man. The moon could never be that, however much easier it might be to establish a base, now. The moon is not, and could never be, a second Earth. Mars, however, is a few clever technologies from being a second Earth. We need a second Earth, much more than we need a permanent moon base - and if the latter were to prevent the former from happening, then we really should consider whether a moon base should ever happen at all.

NASA's resources are finite. They are, in fact, very modest (about 18 billion dollars per year). Thus, space exploration has not been prioritized by the Americans for some decades. Were its resources greater, then a moon base and a mars base would both be within reach, in the next couple of decades. However, it lacks the money presently for either. The economic danger this new discovery presents is that it might persuade NASA's paymasters to support a moon base...which is now going to be much cheaper than expected...but NOT a Mars mission, which remains as expensive as ever.

Ideally, we should have both a moon base and a Martian presence. However, if we are only to have one: it should be Mars that we open up, not the moon.

The answer to this, of course, is not to force NASA to make difficult choices - but to give it the money it needs. As I have noted before, the long-term survival of Mankind depends on us getting "offworld". Man needs to establish offworld colonies if it is to ensure its own survival to the far reaches of time. That, in fact, should be the true mission of NASA: the survival of Mankind. Were NASA to define itself in those terms - and were its paymasters to take that mission seriously - then Mankind could breathe a little more easily that it has a future to look forward to.

If the discovery of water on the Moon is used wisely, as a means to facilitate new missions, then that is good. However, it must not become a long-term distraction from what should be NASA's real aim: establishing an ongoing human presence on Mars.

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