Japanese earthquakes and nuclear disasters

Japan is a nuclear bomb that ticks away, unbeknownst to the world. I say this because of a peculiar and rather dumb circumstance. Japan, one of the most seismically active places in the world, is also home to one of the greatest densities of nuclear power stations. That situation strikes me as not particularly bright or foresighted. In fact, in my title I was going to say “nuclear accident”, but decided against it, because there is nothing accidental about nuclear “accidents” in a nation so prone to earthquakes that actually builds nuclear reactors. In a very real way, Japan is asking for nuclear meltdowns on its soil.

In the wake of the Japanese earthquake on Friday, 10 out of 54 of Japan’s nuclear power stations, have been shut down. One of them, Fukushima Daiichi Plant Unit 1 is showing radiation levels in its control room of 1,000 times normal. Some reactors are running hot, because of failures of their cooling systems, whose power generators have been knocked out by the tsunami. Should emergency cooling efforts fail, these reactors could heat up so much, that they meltdown, releasing vast amounts of radioactive material into the surrounding territory. Indeed, Japan could face multiple Chernobyls, at once, if things go badly.

Japan planned for earthquakes, by building its nuclear plants on solid bedrock. Clearly, however, this precaution is not enough and has given a false sense of security.

Now, 30 per cent of Japan’s electricity comes from nuclear power. That percentage should be zero. It is irresponsible of Japan to build nuclear power stations when their nation is so seismically active. Not only that, but Japan is endangering much of Asia, with its nuclear policy. Should any of its reactors actually meltdown, radiation could be spread far afield, just as it was with Chernobyl. The only thing between the world and disaster, will be the nuclear reactor’s containment vessel: will it hold? There is no knowing.

It seems to me that a nation like Japan, so endangered by earthquakes, should not be permitted to build nuclear reactors of the conventional fission variety. Only in some future time, when fusion reactors become possible (which cannot meltdown), should they be allowed to have nuclear reactors. Japan may consider the implementation of nuclear power a sovereign decision, but it is one with potential effects on many other countries. So, it would seem reasonable, and foresighted, for the international community to require Japan not to build nuclear reactors, and to decommission those it has. Japan will have to find other ways to make electricity – or safer designs of nuclear reactor, that cannot meltdown, should those be possible.

The Japanese earthquake and its consequent nuclear problems is a stark reminder that a nation has not only a responsibility to its citizens, but to the world outside its borders. Japan, in having nuclear reactors, in an earthquake zone, is not fulfilling those responsibilities. I think it is time to have a word with Japan about its nuclear power generation. If none of the reactors melts down this time, nothing might be done. Yet, a lucky escape is not something that can be expected every time an earthquake strikes. Japan should be put on notice that its nuclear power facilities are a danger to the world, and should be phased out, in favour of safer alternatives. If they do wish to have nuclear power, I understand that pebble bed reactors are a safer design – so that might be considered. Whatever is decided, it should be done, immediately, for one thing is sure: one day, Japan will have a nuclear meltdown, if it insists on maintaining conventional fissile reactors, in its earthquake prone borders.

After all the clearing up is done and the losses in people and infrastructure totaled, it will be time to prepare for the next earthquake – and that means making Japan’s nuclear power programme either a whole lot safer – with new designs of plant – or abandoning it altogether.

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Nuclear Power in Singapore.

Are we, I wonder, being prepared to accept nuclear power, in Singapore? I ask because some of the members of Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry's International Advisory Panel on Energy are pro-nuclear power, in the city state.

Dr. John Deutch of MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) thinks that "Nuclear power should not be taken off the table, especially since it may become more prominent in the region." He does add that long-term costs, safety and waste management had to be studied.

I find this alarming. Firstly, I don't think Singapore should consider what the region is doing. If the region goes nuclear, let it - but I wouldn't advise that Singapore should follow their example. You see, Singapore is just too small for safe nuclear energy. Last year, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said it was not feasible for densely populated, compact Singapore because it lacked the minimum 30km distance for evacuation in case of fallout. (Source: Today newspaper, 4th November 2008).

Think about that. There needs to be a minimum of 30km distance between people and the reactor to give some measure of safety in the event of an accident. The last time I looked almost nothing was 30 km away from anything else in Singapore - never mind 30 km away from EVERYONE.

I think Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had it right the first time: Singapore would not be safe with nuclear power. He should not be persuaded by bright eyed foreign academics who may be just looking at the upside, and overlooking the peculiar dangers of the Singaporean situation.

There is no such thing as 100% safety with any machine. There is always the possibility of a series of events leading to disaster. With nuclear power, a huge clear area is needed around the plant, to protect people from the consequences of a disaster. I think even 30km is being cautious - just look at the widespread devastation caused by the Chernobyl disaster (increased radioactivity was noted in the UK!)

If Singapore acquires nuclear power plants, one day there will be an accident. It might be in twenty years or a thousand - but one day, something will go wrong. When that happens, there will not be a Singapore left. Singapore will be uninhabitable. As for the people of Singapore - some of them could face death in the short-term from radiation poisoning - and many would face a slow death in the long-term from radiation induced cancers. All that Singapore has striven for will be at an end. Is it worth it? Aren't there other sources of electricity?

If Singapore had a hinterland in which one could place nuclear power stations comfortably far from human habitation, then they might be a viable option. Yet, the fact is that Singapore has no hinterland. Singapore is an overcrowded little dot. It cannot afford to take the "one in a million" chance that something will go wrong with a nuclear power station one day. You can acquire the "safest" designs and hire the "best" engineers - but one day, something could happen. Don't say that Chernobyl happened because the Russians don't know what they are doing - the Americans also had a nuclear accident at Three Mile Island. If America can get it wrong, Singapore can too. It just isn't worth it.

If Singapore goes nuclear, I would certainly look for another location to live - for I, for one, would not take the risk of my family being caught near to a nuclear plant that went wrong, one day. In fact, maybe that is how this plan will work out. The nuclear power stations will move into our small island - and all the people will leave, creating the comfortable 30km exclusion zone required. Then Singapore can have all the power it wants, even if it hasn't got citizens willing to live near the stations in question.

Technological advocates like Dr. John Deutch often have too much faith in their machines. Such people often forget the times and consequences of when such machines fail. Nuclear power is for those with room to isolate it from major population centres. It is not something a wise nation places next to a major population centre. Not unless, of course, they don't value their people...

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