Is the USA an incapable nation?

I had to ask. One fact prompted me to do so. The USA, at this time, has no means to send astronauts into space. It is entirely dependent on paying the Russians for the privilege of hitching a ride on its spacecraft. This, to me, seems a very humbling fact.

It is the 50^th anniversary of John Glenn’s adventure in space. One would have expected, that, after the passage of 50 years, America would truly have become a spacefaring nation. But no...it seems to be in retreat, in some respects. Fifty years ago, America had the means to send a man into space. Now, they don’t. That is quite a striking fact. Something, clearly, is wrong with modern America.

Let us talk a look at the situation. NASA and America knew for a long time, that the shuttle was to be retired. They knew when it would be retired. Yet, what they did not do, was to ensure that a replacement was ready in time for that retirement. This seems to be a failure of planning, of foresight and, perhaps, the willingness to fund such a replacement. Ultimately, it is a failure of America as a nation.

Everyone imagines that NASA has a huge budget. There is a common assumption that vast sums are being spent on space. However, the true figures are very much smaller. NASA recently announced a 17.7 billion dollar budget request for 2013. My immediate reaction to that: “How pathetic!” It is a miniscule budget compared to the supposed wealth and status of the American nation. The truth is such a small budget (compared to the 3 or 4 trillion spent on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) shows, with overwhelming clarity, that space is simply not a priority, interest or asset of the United States of America. It shows us that space faring is being neglected, indeed, largely ignored. So small is NASA’s budget and the American commitment to space, that the wealth of a few individual billionaires, would be enough to sustain the present level of expenditure, indefinitely. That is nothing.

America was once a great nation – or at least, seemed great. I don’t, however, believe that it is, any longer. The very fact that America is no longer a space faring nation, indicates a precipitous decline in its capabilities and willingness to maintain capabilities. That can only mean that there are profound problems elsewhere that are distracting attention from space efforts.

It seems likely that, in a few decades, another nation will be the world’s leading space nation. That nation could very well be China. If so, America has only one entity to blame: itself. America is wilfully throwing away its lead in the space arena, simply by not caring enough to maintain it. That is emblematic of a nation in decline, a nation that has lost it pride and its ability to sustain its historical advantages.

America is fast becoming an incapable nation – a has been State. I wonder whether it will be seen, in another fifty years time, as the UK is now: a shadow of its former self, a once great power, hanging on to the vestiges of its position, through international tradition alone?

We shall see. What is for certain, however, is that whilst America neglects space and the attendant technologies required to attain it, other nations are forging ahead. The history of space travel was once an American province. The future of space travel is likely to be of a very different origin.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

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The study of Geography

Strange names appear on the lips of my son, Ainan, 7: Valles Marineris, Olympus Mons and the Caloris Basin. These are terms that he has challenged me with: "Where is the Caloris Basin, Daddy?" etc.

Clearly, Ainan has become interested in geography...but what kind of geography is this? I had a clue in that I recognized Olympus Mons - the 24 km high flat-topped volcano on Mars. Ainan is pouring over the geography of the planets, and Solar system bodies - in particular the geography of Mars (areography) where Valles Marineris is situated (a 4,000 km long, 7 km deep canyon, by the way) - and the Caloris Basin, from Mercury (which is a 1,400 km wide impact crater. Ouch.)

Ainan is familiar with many other names, details and information on all the bodies in the Solar System. "Epimetheus?" he challenges...a moon of Saturn. The time for light to reach Earth from Titan? 1 hour and 7 minutes, at light speed (minimum distance apart).

Ainan knows the Solar System better than he knows Earth.

Ainan is only 7 years old. No doubt he will grow up into a world in which people live appreciably longer than the generation before. Is, therefore, his study of the geography of the planets, other bodies of the Solar System, and astronomy - an irrelevance, or will he, one day become familiar with some of these places in person? It is strange to wonder how far and how fast things will change. It is strange to consider what the world he - and my other children - will grow up to live in, will be like. If I look back over the course of my own life, there has been so much change. When I was Ainan's age, there were no personal computers, no mobile phones, no Space Shuttle, no internet...the list could go on quite a way, but you get the idea. What, therefore, will there be in thirty, forty, fifty years time? Could Ainan ever visit the Moon, or Mars? Will it ever become normal practice for people to inhabit these bodies?

The answer to the latter question is, I am sure, an undoubted yes: the future of Man will be a space-going one. As for the answer to the first, I think it depends on the development of the transport systems: if they are affordable and safe, I think many of our children, Ainan included, may one day take a trip off planet, perhaps, in some cases, to stay. If they remain expensive and hazardous, that space going future may be restricted to the few with wealth and an appetite for high risk (like the approximately one in 25 failure rate of Shuttles (as it was in the Challenger days))

There is no telling, at this time, how long our children will live. If science solves the problem of aging before our children begin to suffer from it, they may live hundreds of years. In such a world, Ainan will come to see space-faring as routine: it will be as normal as a transatlantic flight. In such a world, he may one day see these fabled places that now he studies in devoted curiosity. Ainan may one day see Epimetheus outside his spaceship portal.

I wonder in this way, for I see no reason why the future should be closed and circumscribed. It should be open-ended and filled with possibility and wonder. With the rate of change in the scientific and technological world, our children will live to see a much different world from our own, one that we cannot, perhaps, imagine, without failing to capture its richness.

I would not be surprised if, one day, Ainan's unusual knowledge of planetary geography and astronomy actually has a use, for him.

In a way, I hope it does, for then it would mean that Mankind will be much safer and freer from the possibility of extinction. The day we are living off Earth, alone, is the day Mankind can hope for an indefinite future.

Now, that is something worth hoping for.

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