Is the USA an incapable nation?

I had to ask. One fact prompted me to do so. The USA, at this time, has no means to send astronauts into space. It is entirely dependent on paying the Russians for the privilege of hitching a ride on its spacecraft. This, to me, seems a very humbling fact.

It is the 50^th anniversary of John Glenn’s adventure in space. One would have expected, that, after the passage of 50 years, America would truly have become a spacefaring nation. But no...it seems to be in retreat, in some respects. Fifty years ago, America had the means to send a man into space. Now, they don’t. That is quite a striking fact. Something, clearly, is wrong with modern America.

Let us talk a look at the situation. NASA and America knew for a long time, that the shuttle was to be retired. They knew when it would be retired. Yet, what they did not do, was to ensure that a replacement was ready in time for that retirement. This seems to be a failure of planning, of foresight and, perhaps, the willingness to fund such a replacement. Ultimately, it is a failure of America as a nation.

Everyone imagines that NASA has a huge budget. There is a common assumption that vast sums are being spent on space. However, the true figures are very much smaller. NASA recently announced a 17.7 billion dollar budget request for 2013. My immediate reaction to that: “How pathetic!” It is a miniscule budget compared to the supposed wealth and status of the American nation. The truth is such a small budget (compared to the 3 or 4 trillion spent on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) shows, with overwhelming clarity, that space is simply not a priority, interest or asset of the United States of America. It shows us that space faring is being neglected, indeed, largely ignored. So small is NASA’s budget and the American commitment to space, that the wealth of a few individual billionaires, would be enough to sustain the present level of expenditure, indefinitely. That is nothing.

America was once a great nation – or at least, seemed great. I don’t, however, believe that it is, any longer. The very fact that America is no longer a space faring nation, indicates a precipitous decline in its capabilities and willingness to maintain capabilities. That can only mean that there are profound problems elsewhere that are distracting attention from space efforts.

It seems likely that, in a few decades, another nation will be the world’s leading space nation. That nation could very well be China. If so, America has only one entity to blame: itself. America is wilfully throwing away its lead in the space arena, simply by not caring enough to maintain it. That is emblematic of a nation in decline, a nation that has lost it pride and its ability to sustain its historical advantages.

America is fast becoming an incapable nation – a has been State. I wonder whether it will be seen, in another fifty years time, as the UK is now: a shadow of its former self, a once great power, hanging on to the vestiges of its position, through international tradition alone?

We shall see. What is for certain, however, is that whilst America neglects space and the attendant technologies required to attain it, other nations are forging ahead. The history of space travel was once an American province. The future of space travel is likely to be of a very different origin.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

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The value of the Human Race.

How much is the human race worth? By this, I mean, how much is it worth expending, to ensure the long term security and longevity of the human race? I ask this question, because the powers that be, in the world's leading nations, don't seem to be asking it. Look, for instance, at the question of space colonization, as it has recently been debated. Many commentators have balked at the price of spreading human kind into the solar system. They speak of the billions required, as if they are a total waste of money that would be better put to use building mansions for the elite. Never, for a moment, do they pause to reflect what colonizing space means. It means, quite simply this: the immortality of Mankind. Should we never colonize space, Mankind is doomed to extinction. Only if we colonize space, will Mankind have a long term future. Thus, it is, that any analyst should look at any proposal for space colonization with this question in mind: "How much is it worth to save the Human Race from extincition?". They should not consider the expenditure required as throwing money away - for in doing so, they are buying something very valuable: the future of Mankind.

At present, American politicians don't seem to think the long term survival of Mankind is worth the investment of billions of dollars. Personally, I don't think the long term survival of such politicians is worthwhile. If your local politician does not support space colonization, do your bit for the long term survival of Mankind - by voting him out of office. Only a short sighted moron thinks that space colonization is expensive. On the contrary, space colonization is cheap at ANY price - for it ensures the survival of Mankind - and that, to my mind is worth an untold number of billions of dollars - certainly it is worth a lot more than the 3 trillion dollars spent killing people of a different religious persuasion in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Let us save Mankind from extinction. Let us colonize space, in our lifetimes. Judge your local politician accordingly.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

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Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Newt Gingrich's moonbase plan.

Newt Gingrich has pledged to build an American lunar base – or moonbase, as it is more popularly known – by 2020, if he is elected. This is both an ambitious plan and a necessary one, if Americans are to maintain a lead in space, technology and, potentially, energy production.
There are problems with this plan, however. One issue is that America, on the retirement of the shuttle, has no launch vehicle of its own, at least for several years and is reliant on hitching a ride on Russian spacecraft, for now, and, in future, on private ones under development. America is not really a space faring nation at this time. Another issue is that it takes much time to research and develop new spacecraft and new missions, of any real scale. Though under George Bush, NASA spent 9 billion dollars looking a lunar visit. There is no doubt more work pertaining to a moonbase, yet to be done. A spacecraft capable of lunar trips would have to be designed and built. That is a lot to get done in just eight years.

There are other issues too. The Russians and the Chinese both have been speaking of putting together moonbases of their own – the Russians wish to do so, in cooperation with the US. So, there is a certain urgency if America is to get there first. If Newt Gingrich is not elected President, it is unlikely that America will win that particular race. After all, President Obama, with his typical lack of vision, cancelled Bush’s Constellation programme which had planned to take man back to the moon. Obama, it seems, doesn’t see the value in such things. So if Obama is elected again, America’s space plans will have to be decidedly more prosaic for the time being. (Though oddly, Obama did suggest that America forget the moon and go to an asteroid and Mars instead...a much greater ambition, requiring much greater funding. I think, perhaps, he doesn’t fully understand the details of this, since funding concerns was one of the reasons he cancelled the Constellation programme).

Many people have reacted to Newt Gingrich’s proposed moonbase, as if he is off his trolley. He has been buried in scorn from many quarters. Yet, there is nothing impossible about his dream – except perhaps the timescale. Were America to actually fund this proposal, it would happen, in due course. A moonbase is well within our technical capabilities. Indeed, Newt Gingrich is to be admired for having such a vision for America. Without visionary politicians, the future of the world will look rather dull. It is those with vision, who craft a future worth seeing. So I applaud his guts in stating what seems to most, such a visionary near future. I found even more telling about the scale of his vision, when he remarked that once 13,000 Americans were living on the moon, that they could apply to become another state of the USA! How about that for ambitious?
There is something here, that has not been brought up in the discussions about Gingrich’s lunar dream. It is essential, for the long term survival of man, that there be a second location for humanity, other than Earth. It is inevitable that the Earth will face a large scale catastrophe again, as it has in the past. The history of Earth, is a history of extinction...mass extinctions. Indeed, Mankind is precipitating His own mass extinction through carelessness, as I write. One day, Mankind may face extinction on Earth, through a natural catastrophe or a man-made disaster. It is imperative that humanity has a “back up”. Were there a lunar civilization which had got to the point of being self-sustaining, then Mankind would survive an earthly extinction event.

So, though I doubt he is considering the issue, Newt Gingrich’s vision for a permanent lunar base, is one that could not be more important. A lunar base would almost guarantee the long term survival of the human race, by giving us a second chance in the event of mass catastrophe. To be viable as a backup for humanity the lunar base would have to be quite large, with a minimum population of 150 of mixed sexes. This is the smallest number likely to allow long term breeding of the population without too much inbreeding. (If I recall correctly from past reading).

Thus, Newt Gingrich’s view of a new state, with 13,000 Americans resident, would be sufficient to provide a genetic backup to the majority of Mankind, being large enough to store a wide range of genetic variants. It would allow humanity to survive the unforeseen disasters that lie ahead of us.

What if America is led by a man without a vision for space or humanity, like President Obama or his ilk? Then we can expect that China or perhaps Russia will create such a moonbase first. Indeed, without the necessary vision, perhaps America will forego such a base. My reaction to this is perhaps not what you might expect. I would rather that there were a Chinese moonbase, than no moonbase at all. At least, in the event of catastrophe a subset of Mankind would survive, rather than none at all. Thus, it is an advance for humanity, even if only China establishes a moonbase.

It is my hope that a new space race of a kind will ignite, with America vying to get to the moon and form a base, before the Chinese (with the US perhaps working with the Russians) and vice versa. If such a sense of competition is established, it would provoke the competing nations into making the necessary commitment of resources to the task, such that it will actually happen.
One thing that politicians balk at is the cost of a moonbase. I have seen a low estimate of 35 billion dollars to establish the base and 7.35 billion dollars to run it annually. I have also seen one estimate of 700 billion dollars. Whichever it is, I am struck by the strangeness of the thought processes of those who hesitate before such costs – because of one thing: they have no reluctance to commit to spending multi-TRILLIONS of dollars in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – but stall at spending much less on space colonization. It seems that, in America, money is always available to kill people, but not to save the long term future of Mankind.

It is time for Man to take the long term view. We need space colonies if we are to survive as a race. There is no alternative to this. There can be no indefinite survival on Earth, alone. So let us go out into space, and colonize as many worlds as we can in our solar system, and many others.
I am an outsider to American politics. I don’t know that much about Newt Gingrich. Yet, it would be interesting to see him actually become President and strive to put American’s on the moon – permanently. That would certainly make 2020 a year to remember...for all Mankind.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Lunar water and the future of man in Space.

NASA has discovered lunar water...and lots of it. This is both good news and potentially bad news. I shall explain.

On October 9th 2009, a mission involving the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite, LCROSS discovered 25 gallons of water in a plume of dust kicked up, one mile into space, by an empty rocket hull smashing into the Cabeus crater. The crater had been chosen because it is permanently shadowed, at its position near the South Pole: the sun never gets the chance to heat it up and evaporate its contents.

Now, the good part of this news is clear. It seems certain, now, that there is plenty of water on the moon, in such permanently shadowed places. Therefore, a moon base could be established much more cheaply than otherwise would be possible. The water for drinking would not have to be lifted into space - and so too, could rocket fuel be manufactured in situ. The moon is a much more viable location for a permanent base than ever had been thought, before. Yet, there is a danger here. The new attractiveness and relative cheapness of the moon might distract Mankind from a much better prospect: Mars.

Should a permanent base be established on the moon, it may be that Man might delay, for a time too long to contemplate, the establishment of a colony on Mars. The red planet offers a lot more to humans than the Moon ever could. Mars could be terraformed, over centuries, into a new home for Man. The moon could never be that, however much easier it might be to establish a base, now. The moon is not, and could never be, a second Earth. Mars, however, is a few clever technologies from being a second Earth. We need a second Earth, much more than we need a permanent moon base - and if the latter were to prevent the former from happening, then we really should consider whether a moon base should ever happen at all.

NASA's resources are finite. They are, in fact, very modest (about 18 billion dollars per year). Thus, space exploration has not been prioritized by the Americans for some decades. Were its resources greater, then a moon base and a mars base would both be within reach, in the next couple of decades. However, it lacks the money presently for either. The economic danger this new discovery presents is that it might persuade NASA's paymasters to support a moon base...which is now going to be much cheaper than expected...but NOT a Mars mission, which remains as expensive as ever.

Ideally, we should have both a moon base and a Martian presence. However, if we are only to have one: it should be Mars that we open up, not the moon.

The answer to this, of course, is not to force NASA to make difficult choices - but to give it the money it needs. As I have noted before, the long-term survival of Mankind depends on us getting "offworld". Man needs to establish offworld colonies if it is to ensure its own survival to the far reaches of time. That, in fact, should be the true mission of NASA: the survival of Mankind. Were NASA to define itself in those terms - and were its paymasters to take that mission seriously - then Mankind could breathe a little more easily that it has a future to look forward to.

If the discovery of water on the Moon is used wisely, as a means to facilitate new missions, then that is good. However, it must not become a long-term distraction from what should be NASA's real aim: establishing an ongoing human presence on Mars.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

IMDB is the Internet Movie Database for film and tv professionals. If you would like to look at my IMDb listing for which another fifteen credits are to be uploaded, (which will probably take several months before they are accepted) please go to: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3438598/ As I write, the listing is new and brief - however, by the time you read this it might have a dozen or a score of credits...so please do take a look. My son, Ainan Celeste Cawley, also has an IMDb listing. His is found at: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3305973/ My wife, Syahidah Osman Cawley, has a listing as well. Hers is found at: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Space colonization and the survival of Mankind.

How long will Mankind endure? Will humans live to see the embers of the Universe die...or will we only last a few more brief decades and then be gone?

One thing is for sure: if Mankind stays on Earth, we are doomed. This is not to say that the Earth is immediately imperilled, but it is to say that nothing that lives on Earth can endure forever. No lifeform that exists on but one planet, could ever be immortal. At some time, a catastrophic event - such as asteroid impact, war, or epidemic, will ensure the end of humanity, on Earth.

It is fashionable to decry space exploration. Many people who should know better speak of space exploration as if it had no value or purpose at all. They say that the money would be better spent on alleviating third world poverty, etc. What they do not understand, however, is that we have no choice, where space exploration is concerned, if we wish to see the long-term survival of Mankind. Without space colonization, Mankind will not survive, that is for sure.

What, for instance, does establishing a colony on the Moon, or better still, Mars, achieve? As long as the number of people on the Moon or Mars, is above the threshold of about 150 to 180 people required for long-term survival of the colony (through prevention of too much inbreeding) and as long as the colony is self-sustaining, it would achieve a very important goal, indeed: a backup for humanity, itself. Were humans to be wiped out, on Earth, enough would survive on the Moon or Mars, to allow Mankind to continue on the colonized world - or to replenish Earth, itself in a reverse colonization (an idea first suggested, I believe, by Paul Davies).

One colony gives humanity two chances of long-term survival. Simply having one, single, viable colony greatly enhances the prospects that humanity will have a long-term future. More colonies would further increase the probability that Mankind will endure. The best kind of colonies will be those in other star systems, for that would increase the measure of security even further. Interstellar colonies will, however, be further in the future, being rather more difficult to establish.

So, if you want humanity to survive ino the distant future, do what you can, today, to influence decision-makers, to back space colonization. Do what you can to ensure that Moon and Mars colonies (which are envisioned) get the funding they need. Back politicians who back space exploration. Space colonization should be one of humanity's top priorities, but it isn't. The war in Iraq is reckoned to have cost 3 TRILLION dollars, according to an article in March, 2008 in the Washington Post, by Linda J. Bilmes and Joseph E. Stiglitz. Given that, what would you guess NASA's annual budget to be? Have a good guess. Well, it is just 16 billion dollars a year. The Americans have just spent 187 years worth of NASA's budget on a war without end. Just imagine what spending that money on space colonization would have achieved: Mankind's long-term future would have been assured. Does killing people in Iraq ensure the long-term future of humanity? Or does it ensure long-term turmoil on Earth? I would rather have seen every single war dollar spent as a space dollar: for then Mankind would have a better future, indeed.

Wherever you are in the world, vote for those who are backing space ventures. The future of Man depends on it. If you can think of any other way to support space colonization...then do so. I, for one, would like the comfort of knowing that Man was not just a one planet species - for then we would have a chance of enduring.

The technology we need to do this, already exists: all that is in doubt is the funding and political vision. Why not try to open the eyes of decision makers, to a deeper view of Man's future?

(Interesting footnote: Three well known physicists have each spoken in favour of space colonization as a means to safeguard humanity: Stephen Hawking, J. Richard Gott III, and Paul Davies. The first two, in particular, have stated that this is an urgent matter which needs to be done, soon.)

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.)