The hidden cost of the Iraq War.

Everyone knows that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have proven costly. Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize Winner, puts that cost at over 3 trillion dollars, in a Washington Post article, The true cost of the Iraq War, here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/03/AR2010090302200.html

What people don’t know – including Joseph Stiglitz – is that the true cost is the opportunity cost of what might have been done with that 3 trillion dollars, instead. I would like you to consider an undeniable fact and an uncomfortable one: it is undeniable, that the Iraq War, was largely over the control of oil. Had Iraq no oil, it would also have had no war. It is uncomfortable, for many of us, to also note that the world’s oil is running out. There are arguments over how long the oil will last – but it cannot be denied, except by the insane, or oil company propagandists (the same thing), that oil is finite and running out fast. Typical estimates are that we have no more than 40 years left at present rates of consumption before the end of oil. Without replacement energy sources, advanced human civilization will, thereafter, be impossible. Sadly, not enough is being done to prepare for this eventuality. The world’s politicians, as usual, lack foresight – or perhaps just don’t care about such seemingly distant events.

Now, at present, the world consumes about one cubic mile of oil per year, and another two cubic miles of oil energy equivalent, per year, for a grand total of three cubic miles of oil per year. See this Wikipedia article for these facts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil

Thus, one third of the world’s total energy comes from oil. Without it, modern civilization would look a lot like the 18^th century or so – with no energy for the machines of the Industrial Revolution and beyond. One would have thought that this future inevitability (if nothing is done about it) would occupy the minds of our leaders. Unfortunately, that assumes that our leaders have functioning minds – but close observation puts this in question.

I was struck, on reading the Wikipedia article, by an interesting coincidence. The estimated cost of creating a cubic mile of oil energy equivalence, from wind power, is 3.3 trillion dollars. That is about the money spent on the Iraq War. Now, the Iraq War was about securing energy, as oil, for the USA (whatever else they might say it was about, that was, of course, the true motivation). The USA was so concerned about its energy future, that it decided to kill hundreds of thousands of Iraqis to secure more oil supplies. It also thought it worth spending 3 trillion dollars to do so. Curiously, that 3 trillion dollars was about the cost of one cubic mile of oil, at 2008 prices (120 dollars per barrel). So, the Iraq war has cost, so far, enough to buy the world’s entire annual oil production for one year. It has also cost enough to create an independent alternative energy source, from wind, equal to one cubic mile of oil per year, for the lifetime of the turbines (20 to 30 years).

Thus, it can be seen that, had the American leadership been intelligent and wise, they could have foregone the Iraq war and spent the funds they would have spent on it – 3 trillion dollars – on creating energy independence for the United States, such that the United States would have no need for an external energy source, ever again.

The decision to go to war in Iraq was not a rational one. It was one derived from very narrow thinking, that did not see the broad context in which the decision was embedded. Nor did it see the alternative means of achieving the ultimate goal – energy security – that existed. It is clear that little intelligence was applied to the decision – no-one paused to reflect on whether there was an alternative way to achieve the unstated goal: energy supply for the USA.

I wish to propose a general principle: The principle of irrational resource wars:

Wars over oil or any other energy source are irrational, since the cost of the war, is always going to be greater than the cost of creating an alternative energy source by investing some of the funds that would have been spent on the war.

America could have secured the energy equivalence of 20 to 30 cubic miles of oil (the lifespan productive capacity of the wind turbines they could have built), for the cost of the Iraq war. I do not think that Iraq’s total oil reserves are likely to amount to as much as this, since the total world reserves are not going to be much greater than that. (Proven oil reserves are at 43 cubic miles of oil…after that runs out, we are in a post-oil world). Indeed, this article in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves suggests that Iraq has just 8.26% of the world’s oil reserves. That would be equivalent to just 3.55 cubic miles of oil. America could have secured 8 and a half times as much energy, for the same investment, as it did in Iraq – and at the cost of no human lives at all.

From this analysis, it can be seen that the Iraq war was irrational – it had great cost in financial and human life terms – yet, there existed an alternative that would have secured permanent energy independence for the United States, had it been implemented.

Never forget this: War is dumb. There are always more intelligent alternatives, to achieve the same ends – unless the end is death itself.

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Space colonization and the survival of Mankind.

How long will Mankind endure? Will humans live to see the embers of the Universe die...or will we only last a few more brief decades and then be gone?

One thing is for sure: if Mankind stays on Earth, we are doomed. This is not to say that the Earth is immediately imperilled, but it is to say that nothing that lives on Earth can endure forever. No lifeform that exists on but one planet, could ever be immortal. At some time, a catastrophic event - such as asteroid impact, war, or epidemic, will ensure the end of humanity, on Earth.

It is fashionable to decry space exploration. Many people who should know better speak of space exploration as if it had no value or purpose at all. They say that the money would be better spent on alleviating third world poverty, etc. What they do not understand, however, is that we have no choice, where space exploration is concerned, if we wish to see the long-term survival of Mankind. Without space colonization, Mankind will not survive, that is for sure.

What, for instance, does establishing a colony on the Moon, or better still, Mars, achieve? As long as the number of people on the Moon or Mars, is above the threshold of about 150 to 180 people required for long-term survival of the colony (through prevention of too much inbreeding) and as long as the colony is self-sustaining, it would achieve a very important goal, indeed: a backup for humanity, itself. Were humans to be wiped out, on Earth, enough would survive on the Moon or Mars, to allow Mankind to continue on the colonized world - or to replenish Earth, itself in a reverse colonization (an idea first suggested, I believe, by Paul Davies).

One colony gives humanity two chances of long-term survival. Simply having one, single, viable colony greatly enhances the prospects that humanity will have a long-term future. More colonies would further increase the probability that Mankind will endure. The best kind of colonies will be those in other star systems, for that would increase the measure of security even further. Interstellar colonies will, however, be further in the future, being rather more difficult to establish.

So, if you want humanity to survive ino the distant future, do what you can, today, to influence decision-makers, to back space colonization. Do what you can to ensure that Moon and Mars colonies (which are envisioned) get the funding they need. Back politicians who back space exploration. Space colonization should be one of humanity's top priorities, but it isn't. The war in Iraq is reckoned to have cost 3 TRILLION dollars, according to an article in March, 2008 in the Washington Post, by Linda J. Bilmes and Joseph E. Stiglitz. Given that, what would you guess NASA's annual budget to be? Have a good guess. Well, it is just 16 billion dollars a year. The Americans have just spent 187 years worth of NASA's budget on a war without end. Just imagine what spending that money on space colonization would have achieved: Mankind's long-term future would have been assured. Does killing people in Iraq ensure the long-term future of humanity? Or does it ensure long-term turmoil on Earth? I would rather have seen every single war dollar spent as a space dollar: for then Mankind would have a better future, indeed.

Wherever you are in the world, vote for those who are backing space ventures. The future of Man depends on it. If you can think of any other way to support space colonization...then do so. I, for one, would like the comfort of knowing that Man was not just a one planet species - for then we would have a chance of enduring.

The technology we need to do this, already exists: all that is in doubt is the funding and political vision. Why not try to open the eyes of decision makers, to a deeper view of Man's future?

(Interesting footnote: Three well known physicists have each spoken in favour of space colonization as a means to safeguard humanity: Stephen Hawking, J. Richard Gott III, and Paul Davies. The first two, in particular, have stated that this is an urgent matter which needs to be done, soon.)

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