The brevity of life.

Recently, Ainan has taken to considering the brevity of life. It troubles him, somewhat, to look ahead and see so few years to come.

“Life is SO short,” Ainan, said, a few days ago, without preamble. He almost seemed to be cursing its brevity.

“I am 12.”, he continued, a little too soberly, “...and that took no time at all, to reach.”

I kept quiet at that point. I held in my mind a thought I knew he wouldn’t want to hear: that I am 44 – and that took no time at all, to reach either. However old a human gets, they will still feel the same: that it took no time at all to reach their present age. It is one of the odd facts of our existence – that we would feel even the infinite were but an instant.

“Your generation should live a lot longer than mine.”, I said, to comfort him.

“I don’t know about that.”, he countered, a little too sure of himself.

“You think the world is going to have a catastrophic future?”

He just nodded in answer. Ainan didn’t think much of the way the world was being managed by its “leaders” – and was well aware of the steadily accumulating environmental issues, energy problems, pollution, species loss, potential ecosystem collapse and the generally apocalyptic trend of human mismanagement of nature. He didn’t see much hope in the face of it, primarily because he didn’t think much of the competence of those making the relevant decisions.

“No. It won’t.” I said, not quite certain of it, myself.

He just shook his head, deflecting my words and walked off, his thoughts a little too sombre.

Not for the first time, I considered the connection between high intelligence and a sobering view of reality. Smart people tend to understand, too well, the problems Mankind faces and see, too clearly, the limits those could place on their own places – so they can tend to be a little pessimistic as to what is to come.  Dumber types, however, are quite content to be happily ignorant and dismissive of all the darker possibilities. They will live quite happily...until they finally realize how wrong they were to be so content about it all.

Ainan, however, cannot know the ease of the dumb. He sees what might lie ahead and knows the enormity of the challenges Mankind faces. He also knows, the collective dumbness of those charged with navigating what lies ahead. It is not a happy realization.

Think back to what you were like at 12. Were you concerned at the brevity of life and convinced of hard times ahead for the human race? Let me know what you thought, below, so that I might compare your perspectives to Ainan’s.

Thank you.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

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Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.) 

Is the USA an incapable nation?

I had to ask. One fact prompted me to do so. The USA, at this time, has no means to send astronauts into space. It is entirely dependent on paying the Russians for the privilege of hitching a ride on its spacecraft. This, to me, seems a very humbling fact.

It is the 50^th anniversary of John Glenn’s adventure in space. One would have expected, that, after the passage of 50 years, America would truly have become a spacefaring nation. But no...it seems to be in retreat, in some respects. Fifty years ago, America had the means to send a man into space. Now, they don’t. That is quite a striking fact. Something, clearly, is wrong with modern America.

Let us talk a look at the situation. NASA and America knew for a long time, that the shuttle was to be retired. They knew when it would be retired. Yet, what they did not do, was to ensure that a replacement was ready in time for that retirement. This seems to be a failure of planning, of foresight and, perhaps, the willingness to fund such a replacement. Ultimately, it is a failure of America as a nation.

Everyone imagines that NASA has a huge budget. There is a common assumption that vast sums are being spent on space. However, the true figures are very much smaller. NASA recently announced a 17.7 billion dollar budget request for 2013. My immediate reaction to that: “How pathetic!” It is a miniscule budget compared to the supposed wealth and status of the American nation. The truth is such a small budget (compared to the 3 or 4 trillion spent on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) shows, with overwhelming clarity, that space is simply not a priority, interest or asset of the United States of America. It shows us that space faring is being neglected, indeed, largely ignored. So small is NASA’s budget and the American commitment to space, that the wealth of a few individual billionaires, would be enough to sustain the present level of expenditure, indefinitely. That is nothing.

America was once a great nation – or at least, seemed great. I don’t, however, believe that it is, any longer. The very fact that America is no longer a space faring nation, indicates a precipitous decline in its capabilities and willingness to maintain capabilities. That can only mean that there are profound problems elsewhere that are distracting attention from space efforts.

It seems likely that, in a few decades, another nation will be the world’s leading space nation. That nation could very well be China. If so, America has only one entity to blame: itself. America is wilfully throwing away its lead in the space arena, simply by not caring enough to maintain it. That is emblematic of a nation in decline, a nation that has lost it pride and its ability to sustain its historical advantages.

America is fast becoming an incapable nation – a has been State. I wonder whether it will be seen, in another fifty years time, as the UK is now: a shadow of its former self, a once great power, hanging on to the vestiges of its position, through international tradition alone?

We shall see. What is for certain, however, is that whilst America neglects space and the attendant technologies required to attain it, other nations are forging ahead. The history of space travel was once an American province. The future of space travel is likely to be of a very different origin.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

The value of the Human Race.

How much is the human race worth? By this, I mean, how much is it worth expending, to ensure the long term security and longevity of the human race? I ask this question, because the powers that be, in the world's leading nations, don't seem to be asking it. Look, for instance, at the question of space colonization, as it has recently been debated. Many commentators have balked at the price of spreading human kind into the solar system. They speak of the billions required, as if they are a total waste of money that would be better put to use building mansions for the elite. Never, for a moment, do they pause to reflect what colonizing space means. It means, quite simply this: the immortality of Mankind. Should we never colonize space, Mankind is doomed to extinction. Only if we colonize space, will Mankind have a long term future. Thus, it is, that any analyst should look at any proposal for space colonization with this question in mind: "How much is it worth to save the Human Race from extincition?". They should not consider the expenditure required as throwing money away - for in doing so, they are buying something very valuable: the future of Mankind.

At present, American politicians don't seem to think the long term survival of Mankind is worth the investment of billions of dollars. Personally, I don't think the long term survival of such politicians is worthwhile. If your local politician does not support space colonization, do your bit for the long term survival of Mankind - by voting him out of office. Only a short sighted moron thinks that space colonization is expensive. On the contrary, space colonization is cheap at ANY price - for it ensures the survival of Mankind - and that, to my mind is worth an untold number of billions of dollars - certainly it is worth a lot more than the 3 trillion dollars spent killing people of a different religious persuasion in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Let us save Mankind from extinction. Let us colonize space, in our lifetimes. Judge your local politician accordingly.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Newt Gingrich's moonbase plan.

Newt Gingrich has pledged to build an American lunar base – or moonbase, as it is more popularly known – by 2020, if he is elected. This is both an ambitious plan and a necessary one, if Americans are to maintain a lead in space, technology and, potentially, energy production.
There are problems with this plan, however. One issue is that America, on the retirement of the shuttle, has no launch vehicle of its own, at least for several years and is reliant on hitching a ride on Russian spacecraft, for now, and, in future, on private ones under development. America is not really a space faring nation at this time. Another issue is that it takes much time to research and develop new spacecraft and new missions, of any real scale. Though under George Bush, NASA spent 9 billion dollars looking a lunar visit. There is no doubt more work pertaining to a moonbase, yet to be done. A spacecraft capable of lunar trips would have to be designed and built. That is a lot to get done in just eight years.

There are other issues too. The Russians and the Chinese both have been speaking of putting together moonbases of their own – the Russians wish to do so, in cooperation with the US. So, there is a certain urgency if America is to get there first. If Newt Gingrich is not elected President, it is unlikely that America will win that particular race. After all, President Obama, with his typical lack of vision, cancelled Bush’s Constellation programme which had planned to take man back to the moon. Obama, it seems, doesn’t see the value in such things. So if Obama is elected again, America’s space plans will have to be decidedly more prosaic for the time being. (Though oddly, Obama did suggest that America forget the moon and go to an asteroid and Mars instead...a much greater ambition, requiring much greater funding. I think, perhaps, he doesn’t fully understand the details of this, since funding concerns was one of the reasons he cancelled the Constellation programme).

Many people have reacted to Newt Gingrich’s proposed moonbase, as if he is off his trolley. He has been buried in scorn from many quarters. Yet, there is nothing impossible about his dream – except perhaps the timescale. Were America to actually fund this proposal, it would happen, in due course. A moonbase is well within our technical capabilities. Indeed, Newt Gingrich is to be admired for having such a vision for America. Without visionary politicians, the future of the world will look rather dull. It is those with vision, who craft a future worth seeing. So I applaud his guts in stating what seems to most, such a visionary near future. I found even more telling about the scale of his vision, when he remarked that once 13,000 Americans were living on the moon, that they could apply to become another state of the USA! How about that for ambitious?
There is something here, that has not been brought up in the discussions about Gingrich’s lunar dream. It is essential, for the long term survival of man, that there be a second location for humanity, other than Earth. It is inevitable that the Earth will face a large scale catastrophe again, as it has in the past. The history of Earth, is a history of extinction...mass extinctions. Indeed, Mankind is precipitating His own mass extinction through carelessness, as I write. One day, Mankind may face extinction on Earth, through a natural catastrophe or a man-made disaster. It is imperative that humanity has a “back up”. Were there a lunar civilization which had got to the point of being self-sustaining, then Mankind would survive an earthly extinction event.

So, though I doubt he is considering the issue, Newt Gingrich’s vision for a permanent lunar base, is one that could not be more important. A lunar base would almost guarantee the long term survival of the human race, by giving us a second chance in the event of mass catastrophe. To be viable as a backup for humanity the lunar base would have to be quite large, with a minimum population of 150 of mixed sexes. This is the smallest number likely to allow long term breeding of the population without too much inbreeding. (If I recall correctly from past reading).

Thus, Newt Gingrich’s view of a new state, with 13,000 Americans resident, would be sufficient to provide a genetic backup to the majority of Mankind, being large enough to store a wide range of genetic variants. It would allow humanity to survive the unforeseen disasters that lie ahead of us.

What if America is led by a man without a vision for space or humanity, like President Obama or his ilk? Then we can expect that China or perhaps Russia will create such a moonbase first. Indeed, without the necessary vision, perhaps America will forego such a base. My reaction to this is perhaps not what you might expect. I would rather that there were a Chinese moonbase, than no moonbase at all. At least, in the event of catastrophe a subset of Mankind would survive, rather than none at all. Thus, it is an advance for humanity, even if only China establishes a moonbase.

It is my hope that a new space race of a kind will ignite, with America vying to get to the moon and form a base, before the Chinese (with the US perhaps working with the Russians) and vice versa. If such a sense of competition is established, it would provoke the competing nations into making the necessary commitment of resources to the task, such that it will actually happen.
One thing that politicians balk at is the cost of a moonbase. I have seen a low estimate of 35 billion dollars to establish the base and 7.35 billion dollars to run it annually. I have also seen one estimate of 700 billion dollars. Whichever it is, I am struck by the strangeness of the thought processes of those who hesitate before such costs – because of one thing: they have no reluctance to commit to spending multi-TRILLIONS of dollars in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – but stall at spending much less on space colonization. It seems that, in America, money is always available to kill people, but not to save the long term future of Mankind.

It is time for Man to take the long term view. We need space colonies if we are to survive as a race. There is no alternative to this. There can be no indefinite survival on Earth, alone. So let us go out into space, and colonize as many worlds as we can in our solar system, and many others.
I am an outsider to American politics. I don’t know that much about Newt Gingrich. Yet, it would be interesting to see him actually become President and strive to put American’s on the moon – permanently. That would certainly make 2020 a year to remember...for all Mankind.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

A vision of tomorrow.

Today, not for the first time, I paused to admire an open plan “stall”, in Bangsar Village One Shopping Centre, in Kuala Lumpur. This is a rather odd shop and every time I see it, I think it strange. It is a shop that sells models of old sailing ships. The sign above them calls them “wealth ships”.

As I contemplated the diverse range of multi-sailed ships, of various designs, in their lacquered wood, I suddenly had an epiphany: I wasn’t looking at the past, at all, but the future. One day, Mankind might have to return to using sailing ships, for global transport, in the wake of Peak Oil, Peak Coal, indeed, Peak Everything. To my grandchildren, sailing ships such as the ones before me, at that stall, might not be history at all, but the living present. It was a most sobering realization.

As I write, I am aware that few people seem to be truly conscious of the plight the modern world faces with declining fossil fuel supplies. Viable alternatives are unready and undeveloped. The “renewable energy” of which everyone speaks contributes a minute amount of present needs, and needs to be dramatically scaled up, to replace the declining fossil fuels – and I just don’t know if the urgency, resolve, investment, planning and foresight are there to get that done, in time.

The time I have lived and the life I have known, in this modern era, might one day come to be seen as fantastical to our descendants – more of an Atlantis like legend - than anything that was ever real or tangible.

Should not enough be done, in time, to secure new energy sources and salvage the decline in civilization that would result, if they are not replaced, then, my words might not reach the future, to be read. They might be lost, along with the Internet, when we are no longer able to power it. It is a gloomy prospect.

The world is asleep, in many ways, before the difficulties that lie ahead. Many of the world’s politicians, still seem to be thinking in a very short term way, not preparing properly, for what is to come. I hope, as I write, that if the future should know ships like the ones I saw today, that it is by choice – and not because Mankind was left with no other option. I would not like to think that I had lived at the Peak of Human Civilization, too. I had always rather hoped that a long ascent would stretch ahead of me, into long ages, after I had gone. However, that might never be. We might, unknowingly, be living in a time of legends. We might be living the stuff of fables, for our distant descendants. I hope not. I dearly hope not – but those ships, today, did leave me to wonder, at what tomorrow might really be like.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.).

Ainan on technological advance.

Yesterday, I was speaking to Ainan about a predicted technological advance.

“Ainan, I have read that, in a few years time, scientists will be able to create an event cloak, to hide an event from observation.”

“In a few years time…”, he scoffed.

I appraised his distinctly unimpressed features.

“If someone says, “In a few years time”, they haven’t done it, and have no idea what to do – but just expect it to happen.”, he elaborated.

It became clear that Ainan wasn’t a great believer in technological predictions – and, it was reasonable for him to be so, since he had history on his side. Most predictions of the technological future, in the past, have turned out to be wrong.

It was interesting that he should be such a sceptic, for most children are much more accepting of what they are told about the future: they believe it, usually without much question. Ainan doesn’t. His stance is more a case of “show me your evidence and a working prototype please”.

Ainan is cautious in his expectations for the near technological future. His view is moderated by his understanding that the pace of technological change has slowed in recent years and is nowhere near as fast as mythology would have us suppose. His view is more of a realist, than a pessimist: he expects change and development, but a much more measured change than some commentators expect. He is not, for instance, a great believer in Kurzweill’s imminent “Singularity” and all its attendant technological wonders. Such things may come, in Ainan’s universe – but they will come at a much more leisurely pace.

He has spoken of the likely future he will live in, before. He expects an incremental, evolutionary period of change, rather than a revolutionary one. All the techno-dreams that fervent futurists write are things Ainan does not expect to see, in his lifetime. He believes that those soothsayers are overestimating the pace of change and, in some areas, underestimating the problems that would have to be overcome to make real, their dreams of tomorrow.

Sadly, Ainan is more likely to be right than any of the more famed futurists: their rosy view of times to come, is ever optimistic and overlooks, to a great degree, the magnitude of the tasks to be undertaken.

I hope, Ainan that the future you see, and which I may not, is one that does not disappoint you: may it be interesting enough to sustain you and rich enough to be worth the wait.

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.htmland here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Osama bin Laden and the price of over confidence.

Osama bin Laden was not killed by the Americans, he was killed by his own over confidence. Why, I wonder, was such a wanted man living in an affluent suburb of Islamabad? Not only that but he was living in a very obvious house: one with walls up to 18 feet tall, with barbed wire on top and only one entrance through double security gates. I understand, furthermore, that his property was eight times the size of typical ones nearby. Not only that, but most curiously, for such an evidently wealthy resident, no phone lines or internet connection entered the property. It seems to me that his elaborate defences did not protect him but, in fact, singled him out.

The legend of Osama bin Laden had long held that he lived in the mountains on the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan, in some unknown cave. Were this, in fact, true, it is very likely that the Americans would never have found him and never have managed to kill him. Though I cannot know Osama bin Laden’s thinking on this, it does appear that a liking for a more comfortable life than the one of legend, led him to become a rather obvious figure to the watchful Americans. Had he truly been the ascetic that parts of his legend suggested, tonight President Obama and America would not be celebrating this victory.

I must say that I am surprised by the death of Osama bin Laden – not surprised at the death itself, for everyone knew that the Americans were seeking him out – no, I am just surprised that anyone who had done what Osama had reputedly done, would lead such a conspicuous life, on the outskirts of a major city. Perhaps the long years, since 9/11, in which the Americans had singularly failed to find him, had led him to believe that they never would – and so he chose to live in a manner which would, ultimately, draw attention to himself.

America might be celebrating today, but I can’t help but feel that this “victory” will only lead to more sorrow. The death of a man of such importance among his colleagues in cause, can only lead to a concerted effort at reprisal. I have read reports that, years ago, Al Qaeda threatened Europe with a nuclear attack, should Osama bin Laden ever be killed. Apparently, they were claiming to have hidden a nuclear bomb somewhere in Europe, for just such a day. Whether this is a bluff or not, we may soon know.

So, a more reflective response than celebration, to this development, does seem to be appropriate. A wiser response would be to step up preparedness for a reprisal – and, in particular, to ascertain whether there really is a nuclear weapon in Europe, hidden somewhere, awaiting a signal from Al Qaeda.

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here: http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks. You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at: http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is at http://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)