Ron Fouchier and the end of the world.

Will Ron Fouchier’s curiosity and, it seems ego, end the modern era? Dr. Ron Fouchier is a virologist at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam. He is also the creator of, most probably, the most deadly virus ever seen on Earth.

Ron Fouchier has mutated the bird flu, H5N1, into an airborne form, that transmits easily from host to host – and would do so, too, in humans. If his virus were ever to be released into the world, it would kill 50 to 60% of all who caught it: billions of people would die. Civilization itself might fall, in the chaos and terror of such a pandemic, in which simply breathing the air, breathed out by another, some distance away, would be enough to kill.

Apparently, it took, we are told, just five mutations, to change ordinary bird flu – which kills over 50% of those infected, but rarely transmits between people – into an easily transmissible airborne version, that spreads as easily as any other flu – but which is up to 30 times as deadly as the Spanish flu of 1918, which only killed 2% of those it infected.

Truly, this virus is a potential doomsday weapon. Yet, it is held in a special room at the Erasmus Medical Center, in Rotterdam. Should it ever be leaked, billions could die as a result. Richard H. Ebright, a bioweapons expert at Rutgers University commented that there had been hundreds of unintentional leaks of potential bioweapons from US labs – and regarding airborne H5N1 he opined: “It will inevitably escape and within a decade”. Should it ever do so, Ron Fouchier would become the most destructive person in human history. His work would have killed billions of people.

There is only one justification for the kind of work Ron Fouchier has done. That is if this work leads to a means to defeat this illness and prevent it ever becoming a pandemic. However, now that he has created it and spoken of its details at public meetings, it is likely that others will recreate the work. As similar viruses are created elsewhere, the chances of an accidental or deliberate leak escalate. The race, therefore, is now on, between those who would defeat this potential pandemic, and those who would unleash it, accidentally or deliberately.

Oftentimes, it seems that modern man does not have long in this world. We have the intelligence to create powerful technologies, but not the wisdom, as a race, to use them wisely. Ron Fouchier’s work could lead directly to the downfall of modern civilization. Were 60% of people to die, days after being exposed to no more than a sneeze, I very much doubt whether the fabric of civilization would hold – it would rupture into utter terrified chaos.

The real danger of Ron Fouchier’s H5N1 work is that now all the world’s terrorists and unhinged haters of humanity, will know that it is possible to create an airborne H5N1 – by simply announcing that, he has ensured that many others, around the world, will try to do so. Even if these groups don’t deliberately release it, simply by working on it, they greatly increase the chances that it will be released accidentally. Then again, there are foreign powers who might consider releasing such a virological agent. What might North Korea, for instance, do with such a virus? Would they consider it reasonable to lose 60% of their own population (which they don’t seem to have much love for), so as to kill 60% of the rest of the world? Some unstable nation, somewhere, might make that calculation and make a fateful decision.

The onus is now on Ron Fouchier and all the virologists familiar with his work, to create a vaccine against H5N1, or to derive some other means of defeating it. If this is not done, the time might come, after the modern era, when the name Ron Fouchier is remembered for all the wrong reasons.

I am struck by the hint of a self-satisfied smile that seems to adorn all photos of Ron Fouchier that I have seen. I am not sure whether I am reading him wrongly or not – but he does seem to be rather impressed with himself. Personally, I wouldn’t want to be potentially responsible for the death of 60% of humanity and the fall of the modern era – yet that is precisely the potential of the work he seems so smug about.

Now, that you have made the virus Ron, you have a responsibility to learn how to defeat it. Only then would you truly deserve a self-satisfied smile. Only then, will humanity be able to relax, before its impending fate.

Posted by Valentine Cawley

(If you would like to support my continued writing of this blog and my ongoing campaign to raise awareness about giftedness and all issues pertaining to it, please donate, by clicking on the gold button to the left of the page.

To read about my fundraising campaign, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-in-support-of-my.html and here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/01/fundraising-drive-first-donation.html

If you would like to read any of our scientific research papers, there are links to some of them, here: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2011/02/research-papers-by-valentine-cawley-and.html

If you would like to see an online summary of my academic achievements to date, please go here: http://www.getcited.org/mbrz/11136175

To learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 7 and Tiarnan, 5, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

There is a review of my blog, on the respected The Kindle Report here:http://thekindlereport.blogspot.com/2010/09/boy-who-knew-too-much-child-prodigy.html

Please have a read, if you would like a critic's view of this blog. Thanks.

You can get my blog on your Kindle, for easy reading, wherever you are, by going to: http://www.amazon.com/Boy-Who-Knew-Too-Much/dp/B0042P5LEE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&s=digital-text&qid=1284603792&sr=8-1

Please let all your fellow Kindlers know about my blog availability - and if you know my blog well enough, please be so kind as to write a thoughtful review of what you like about it. Thanks.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at:http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/

Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/

Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is athttp://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

The wisdom of planning ahead.

I have often wondered whether Mankind is a truly intelligent species. I am led to wonder because, on the whole, Man does more stupid, than intelligent things. Mankind is more remarkable for its moments of utter dumbness, than its peaks of intelligent action.

Now, many of you might be moved to argue with me, over this. Yet, it only takes a little reflection on what Man actually does, to realize that it is true. I will give you one example: New Orleans. Most of you will remember that Hurricane Katrina demolished this US city, some years ago. What you might not be aware of, is that this was entirely avoidable. You see, for many years before Hurricane Katrina, disaster planners would use New Orleans as an example of what could happen in the event of a hurricane hitting the US. They even ran a simulation not long before the actual hurricane hit (a year or so, I think). In that simulation, they calculated the devastation that would be caused and all agreed that it would be terrible indeed. Yet, what did they do to prepare for it? Nothing much. As I have noted, Mankind is stupid. When confronted with the knowledge that certain death and destruction is going to occur, sometime, in the future, in a particular locality, the collective will of Mankind is to do nothing about it. People would rather "save money" now, than worry about a "hypothetical" disaster later. Of course, this makes said disaster inevitable, when it could have been avoided. I am even led to propose a principle: there is no such thing as a natural disaster, only human inaction, before it. Hurricane Katrina was as much a product of a human unwillingness to prepare for the future, as it was a result of the movement of air, over water.

What gets me about this, of course, is that the cost of not preparing for the future, is always greater than the cost of actually doing so. There is, in truth, no money to be "saved" by doing nothing to avert predictable disasters.

Another disaster waiting to happen to Humanity, is bird flu. The H5N1 strain of bird flu has occasionally showed itself, over the past decade or two, in Asia, promptly killing most of the people it infected. Indeed, the World Health Organization website says that "avian influenza can reach a mortality rate of 100% in 48 hours of onset". So, bird flu is something to be feared. It is also something, one would have thought, to prepare against. Just imagine that bird flu, say H5N1, mutates to become readily transmissible between humans. Just think what would happen once it boards planes around the world, from China (a likely source), to scatter widely about the Earth before anyone notices. (China has a history of hushing up disease outbreaks, which leads to the world being unaware of what is happening until too late). Imagine a disease as infectious as the common cold, or typical flu, but with a fatality rate approaching 100%. It could destroy the human race.

Yet, what, precisely, is the human race doing about it? Zero. As far as I am aware there is no real preparation for this eventuality which will, eventually, occur, without any doubt. It is just a matter of time. Somewhere, in a rural area of, most probably, Asia, a sick chicken is going to make a child sick and that child is going to kill the world.

What can we do about this, you might ask? Well, it is simple really: make a stockpile of vaccine that immunizes against all the strains of H5N1 that have been noted so far and give two shots to everyone one can find, on Earth. Now, some of you might object that we can't know what the proposed highly infectious strain of H5N1 looks like. It might differ significantly from the known strains. Well, this might be true - but I have read something which is very hopeful on that front. Some people were immunized against a 1997 strain of H5N1. Later, their immune reaction was tested against a 2005 strain of H5N1 - and CONSIDERABLE cross protection was noted. Thus, immunizing against the known versions of H5N1, would probably confer a significant degree of protection against future strains. It may, for instance, turn it from a disease which kills, to a disease which merely makes people sick. Another benefit is that it might shorten the period that specific immunization might take, needing, perhaps, only one shot, rather than two, of a vaccine, to confer specific resistance.

So, here we have an example of something Mankind can do to prevent millions, perhaps billions of human deaths. Indeed, something which might even save the human race. Yet, no nation is doing it. They prefer, instead, to wait until disaster strikes, to wait until people are dying en masse of H5N1, before trying to protect against it. The problem with that is that the lead time for producing a vaccine is about 6 months. Thus, in that period, a pandemic H5N1 could kill millions or billions of people.

It seems that Mankind is so enamoured of money, that "saving" it now, is worth more than the death of the human race, later.

I hope that H5N1 never becomes pandemic. Should it do so, one thing seems most likely: the human race will be completely unprepared and millions of people will die. Should you be among the survivors, remember this: all those deaths were unnecessary, caused only by the collective unwillingness of Mankind to prepare for the future.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, 10, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, 6 and Tiarnan, 4, this month, please go to:
http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html

I also write of gifted education, child prodigy, child genius, adult genius, savant, megasavant, HELP University College, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, Malaysia, IQ, intelligence and creativity.

My Internet Movie Database listing is at: http://imdb.com/name/nm3438598/
Ainan's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3305973/
Syahidah's IMDB listing is at http://imdb.com/name/nm3463926/

Our editing, proofreading and copywriting company, Genghis Can, is at http://www.genghiscan.com/

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication is prohibited. Use only with permission. Thank you.)

Singapore is lagging in flu preparedness.

Singapore is lagging in flu pandemic preparedness, compared to Britain. This article here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/28/swine-flu-mexico-scotland

...shows that the UK has 33 million courses of anti-influenza medication stockpiled for a pandemic. That is enough to treat 55% of the population. As I noted, however, in my previous article, Singapore only has enough drugs to treat 10% of the population. Clearly, Singapore seems to care less for its people than the UK does, for its.

Presumably, Singapore's relative lack of drug defenses against flu are due to a cost saving mentality: they would rather not overspend on something that may never be used, is how I think, they "think". Of course, they haven't given much to thought to what would happen if they have grossly underestimated treatment needs in the event of a pandemic (which they have...since in a true pandemic, treatment would most probably be needed for greater than 10% of a population. Western Samoa, for instance, showed 90% infection, in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.)

So, Singaporeans can be happy in the knowledge that their government prefers to save money, rather than save lives. You can all rest assured that the national reserves will be there when you need them. The only problem is, since they have saved so much money on drugs never bought, you might not be there to enjoy the national reserves when the day they come to be needed.

Seriously, though, I think more forethought should be given to worst case scenarios - and less to how to cut costs and be minimalist about investing in the health of the nation. Should Singapore ever truly underestimate a pandemic, the nation might not survive in its former state. Britain has clearly thought of these worst case scenarios and has enough drugs on hand to treat over half the population. If Britain can do it, why hasn't Singapore?

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)

Swine Flu: is Singapore ready?

Swine flu is spreading around the world. In Mexico it has already killed 152 people (a 50 % jump from the previous tally, on Monday). Cases have been noted in various parts of the world: the USA, Spain, New Zealand, South Korea and Israel. The World Health Organization have declared this a level 4 threat (out of 6 levels). This is the highest they have ever declared, since the system was put in place, five or six years ago. It looks like the world could be in for a rough time. The question is: is Singapore ready?

Singapore has already set up infra red cameras at the airports, scanning arrivals from known infected nations. This is exactly what was done in the face of SARS. Hospitals have isolation rooms available. Doctors and nurses have been trained for this occasion. But is it enough?

I ask this question for a reason, you see, I was struck by something: Singapore has a population of 4.8 million people, yet it has on hand only 500,000 courses of the antiviral, anti-influenza drug Tamiflu. (Figures are from Singapore's daily newspapers...) Thus, in the worst of all possible scenarios, with a virus that is easily transmitted between people, Singapore only has enough drugs to treat 10% of the population. Now, there is a dilemma. Who do you treat? What if those not treated die? Is this the kind of choice we want our Doctors to have to make? The choice of life or death?

It need not be this way. All the rich state of Singapore would have to do to ensure the complete NATIONAL SECURITY of its population, is to have enough Tamiflu stockpiled to treat the entire nation. Sure, it would cost ten times as much...but what is money compared to the deaths of thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people?

Let us look at the example of Mexico, the epicentre of this new disease outbreak. They have had an estimated 2,000 cases. They have also had 152 known deaths. That is a lethality rate of 7.5%. Now, that might not seem much compared to the plagues of history, but in modern times, it is a completely unacceptable, even horrifying, degree of lethality. What is worse to consider is just who is dying. The flu commonly kills the old. Now, while tragic, we all see this as less tragic than the death of the young. The elderly have lived long lives, have had the chance to express their natures, have a career, children and grandchildren and come to understand the world and their place in it. However, this is not so for the young - and the young is precisely who are being killed by the H1N1 swine flu emanating from Mexico. This particular disease loves to take away young adults in their prime, by ravaging their lungs in one last bout of pneumonia. It sounds a terrible way to die...and that way is on its way across the world, even as I write.

So far, no-one outside of Mexico has been killed by the disease. Perhaps this is due to effective treatment being ministered to the victims. However, we should not be complacent because medical infrastructure has inherent capacity limits - and a global pandemic would soon overwhelm that capacity to treat people properly. There could, in a bad scenario, be far too many cases to treat. Many would not receive adequate care...and many would die, therefore. Returning to the matter of drugs: there simply is neither the supply nor the production capacity to meet potential demand for Tamiflu, in the event of a global pandemic. The manufacturer of Tamiflu, Roche, said they could supply an additional 5 million courses to the world, if required. What is that in a world not far short of 7 billion? The stockpiles that exist around the world, of Tamiflu, are adequate for a moderate outbreak - but they cannot meet the needs of a global pandemic. Quite simply, Doctors would have to choose whom to treat, and with whom to let nature take its course: to live or to die - let the virus decide.

We are fortunate that the H1N1 swine flu (a mixture, apparently, of avian, swine and human influenza viruses) is treatable by both Tamiflu and Relenza. Tamiflu has been specifically stocked in Singapore, however, this seems inadequate to me, on two counts. Firstly, different viruses are likely to be resistant to different drugs and there are FOUR drugs available to treat influenza. These are: Symmetrel (amantadine), Flumadine (rimantadine), Relenza (zanamivir) and Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate). The H1N1 swine flu is resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to Relenza (zanamivir) and Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate). However, it could easily have been resistant, for instant, to Tamiflu, as well - and what good would Singapore's Tamiflu stocks have been then?

What is needed is for Singapore to stock ALL types of influenza drug, as a precaution against any and all influenza pandemics, which are CERTAIN to come, at some point in time. Not only that, but the stockpiles should be large enough to treat the entire population of Singapore, if need be. The only thing that is needed to ensure this is money - and money is the only thing that is risked. On the upside, Singapore's people would be made as safe as possible from flu pandemics as it is possible to be. This is, in fact, the only wise choice. It is the choice that defends against the worst possible scenario, rather than being optimistic about patient numbers. One must assume the worst in such planning - and the worst is a disease so transmissible that almost everyone gets it. Thus, there should be treatment available for everyone - and in all possible varieties, in case the disease is resistant to several drugs.

Of course, it is possible that there could be a flu pandemic resistant to all drugs...in which case, human civilization could be struck a very hard blow indeed. Let us hope, though, that our luck holds and that at least one of our drugs works, on all future pandemics. Let us hope, too, that we will have had the wisdom to stockpile it sufficiently.

This swine flu may or may not become a global pandemic. It may or may not become a wholesale killer. However, the fact remains that one day there will be a wholesale flu killer of mankind. It is the responsibility of the state - of all states, in fact - to ensure that the national defenses are as strong as possible against such an eventuality (which shall eventually come). The price that unprepared states could pay, is too high to contemplate. In the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, some states lost up to 30 % of their people (according to Wikipedia, Western Samoa, for instance lost 30 % of adult men, 22% of adult women and 10% of all children). The most recent estimates of total deaths worldwide are from 50 to 100 million people. This was in a much less populated world of only 2 billion people. Comparable figures for today would be in the region of 175 to 350 million people, were we as badly affected, today, as the world was in 1918.

I hope that the swine flu does not become a global pandemic. I hope further that all states learn this lesson: to prepare for the worst possible scenario, by having enough drugs to treat the entire population of their countries, with all possible drugs: anything less, is dangerous foolishness.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to:http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

We are the founders of Genghis Can, a copywriting, editing and proofreading agency, that handles all kinds of work, including technical and scientific material. If you need such services, or know someone who does, please go to: http://www.genghiscan.com/ Thanks.

This blog is copyright Valentine Cawley. Unauthorized duplication prohibited. Use Only with Permission. Thank you.)