What if Barack Obama does not win?

Senator Barack Obama is leading in all polls in the race to be the American President. As I write, he leads 51.1 % to 44.2 % against Senator John McCain, on the Yahoo poll. He should therefore win by a landslide, but will he?

I wonder because of historical reasons. There is the so-called Bradley effect, named after a black politician, Tom Bradley, who led by a long way, in the polls, in the race to be California governor in 1982 - but then lost the election. The common understanding of that situation is that white people did not wish to be seen as racist, in polling, so declared that they would vote for him - but that in the privacy of the polling booth, their true opinions showed - and they voted against him. One concern is that the same thing might happen to Obama: if America is still sufficiently racist, there might be a surprising degree of votes against him - and votes for the other candidate, John McCain, simply because he is not black.

There are other concerns too. Many believe that the 2004 election of George Bush was flawed, owing to electoral fraud. There were some shocking practices at work. In one case, an area received more votes for the Republican Bush than there were actually voters in that area! Clearly, fraud was at work here. There were also allegations of interference with the electronic voting machines, with staff from the company that made the machines seen entering instructions into the machines shortly before a change of voting pattern of against Bush, to for Bush.

Worse still, in some Democratic areas of America, voting machines were unavailable for up to seven hours, leaving potential voters unable to vote AT ALL. They either had to queue for many hours - or give up and go home without voting. Of course, many of them did just that, giving the election to Bush. Will there be voting machine shortages in Democratic areas in this election?

In the present election, too, there are other worrying developments. In some areas flyers have been distributed, on official looking paper, saying that Republicans are to vote on November 4th, and Democrats on November 5th. Should any Democrat believe this, they would turn up on the 5th to find the election over.

I find all of this very disappointing. America is supposedly the world's leading democracy - but it suffers a little too much from the dishonest actions of individuals trying to influence the outcome of the election, by any means possible. This needs to be curbed. It would be wise to trace the culprits in all irregularities and confer long prison sentences upon them, to discourage such practices in future. Whether the Americans will do so, is another matter - after all, if the practices are too widespread, the winner of the election may have been "elected" by them - and would hardly, therefore, be interested in punishing those responsible.

Senator Barack Obama is leading consistently in all polls, across the board, with margins in some polls of up to 13%. If he does not win, therefore, there will be the widespread belief, in America, that the polls have been rigged and that the election has been stolen. (There will be this belief even if the true cause is that of racism: such is the effect of the instances of electoral irregularities that have come to light, so far.) This belief can only lead to trouble on a grand scale. It is quite possible that America will see nationwide riots, if it is President McCain, rather than President Obama.

Even if President Obama is duly elected. I have one further concern: what if he is assassinated? America nurtures a fairly large body of white supremacists: surely they would find the election of a Black President, insufferable? It is likely that, upon election, President Obama will become the target of many plots, from white supremacists, to remove him by force of the bullet or the bomb. Should he be assassinated, of course, chaos is likely to ensue in the United States, with the nation divided along racial lines. No doubt President Obama's death would not be the only one to occur should he be assassinated.

America is in a difficult position therefore. If Barack Obama does not win, America will face chaos; if he does win, but is then assassinated, America will face chaos. So, whether or not President Obama is elected, there could be trouble to come, for the United States of America.

As an observer, I find it intriguing that all of these problems come at a time when America is facing its biggest economic crisis in modern times. Whoever is elected, America faces interesting times ahead (in the Chinese sense of the term).

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and seven months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, five years exactly, and Tiarnan, twenty-eight months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, Singapore, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, wunderkind, wonderkind, genio, гений ребенок prodigy, genie, μεγαλοφυία θαύμα παιδιών, bambino, kind.

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Benazir Bhutto's Assassination and Democracy in Pakistan

As all the world knows, Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister of Pakistan, has been assassinated. I am not about to write an obituary, for others have done that, but I am going to comment on the wider meaning of this event.

Pakistan is a troubled country, that much is clear. It teeters on the brink of chaos. President Musharraf, who has been much criticized, has great difficulties ahead, in holding his nation together. That much is clear. However, tragic though it is for Benazir Bhutto's family and her party, the PPP (Pakistan People's Party), it has much wider implications for the prospects of democracy in Pakistan.

Already Nawaz Sharif, her political rival, and fellow opposition leader, has said his party will not run in the elections on January 8th. This is the first sign of the effects of this assassination. Politicians are human. They have hopes, fears and ambitions - and all of them, I am sure, have a deep-seated wish to live. Seeing a fellow politician murdered like this, simply for holding views not liked by the murderer will have a truly chilling effect on democracy in Pakistan. Would you, as a politician, like to say what you truly think and feel and campaign for what you truly believe in, if the consequence would be your own death - and the death of many others near you? Many people would falter at such a decision. They would do as Sharif has done: announce publicly that he will not run. I don't know the fullness of his decision making - but surely the fact that running could mean his own assassination no doubt has a great influence.

People of talent and gift, people who could contribute to the building of the Pakistani nation will remember what happened to Benazir Bhutto - and when they come to decide on what they would like to do with their lives, many who might otherwise have chosen to enter politics, may decide otherwise and choose to lead quieter, less influential lives. For what benefit is there in leading a life of influence if the penalty is death?

Ultimately, the long term future of Pakistan will suffer from this assassination rather more than people might anticipate. Relatively few people will be brave enough (or foolhardy enough) to challenge the status quo. Relatively few people will wish to upset the people, as yet undeclared, who prove to be behind this attack. Relatively few people will be truly free to engage in politics. In consequence, every Pakistani will be the poorer for it. A nation of 165 million people has lost a lot more than one charismatic political leader - they may have lost democracy itself.

(If you would like to learn more of Ainan Celeste Cawley, a scientific child prodigy, aged eight years and no months, or his gifted brothers, Fintan, four years and five months, and Tiarnan, twenty-two months, please go to: http://scientific-child-prodigy.blogspot.com/2006/10/scientific-child-prodigy-guide.html I also write of gifted education, IQ, intelligence, the Irish, the Malays, College, University, Chemistry, Science, genetics, left-handedness, precocity, child prodigy, child genius, baby genius, adult genius, savant, gifted adults and gifted children in general. Thanks.)